芳烃日报：外盘情绪影响下高位回落-20260203

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The market should be treated with caution. Technically, there is still room for correction. Short - term attention should be paid to commodity sentiment and external market trends [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 27, the total inventory of styrene in the mainstream storage areas of East China's Jiangsu Province fluctuated between 94,500 and 123,300 tons. The inventory at major ports in East China is still at a historically low level, and spot liquidity remains tight [1] - As of the week of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of EPS was 58.71%, a month - on - month increase of 4.66%. In the off - season of downstream demand, merchants were cautious about chasing up, and the overall trading atmosphere was poor [1] - The capacity utilization rate of PS was 57.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The Nanjing plant resumed production, and Guangxi Changke restarted, but Lianyungang Petrochemical and Ningbo Liwan each reduced one production line. The industry supply was temporarily stable, the total industry supply was stable, the market sales were average, and the inventory increased [1] - The capacity utilization rate of ABS was 66.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The manufacturer's supply was still very tight, mainly controlling the quantity of goods. After entering January, most of the goods were high - priced. After the Spring Festival, there were more inquiries in the market, the trading volume increased, and the price rebounded. In addition, the capacity utilization rate of UPR was 38%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 82.92%, remaining stable month - on - month [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - US President Trump said that the share of Venezuela in oil profits has not been discussed. India is about to intervene and buy Venezuelan oil. Trump said over the weekend that Iran is having "serious talks" with Washington, sending a signal of easing the situation with the OPEC member, causing a sharp drop in WTI crude oil [2] - Nine units including the Ministry of Commerce issued the "2026 'Happy Shopping for the Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan" [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The market stopped falling and rebounded during the day, but the strength was general. It is necessary to further observe the market sentiment and inventory changes. Overall, it should be treated with caution. Technically, there is still room for correction. Short - term attention should be paid to commodity sentiment and external market trends [3][4]