钢材&铁矿石日报：现实格局不佳，钢矿承压走弱-20260203

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.51%, showing a pattern of decreasing volume and increasing positions. Currently, rebar supply remains stable at a high level while demand is weak, and the fundamental situation continues its seasonal weakness. During the off - season, rebar prices are under pressure, but cost support is a positive factor. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.34%, and both volume and positions decreased. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil are at a high level, and the fundamental situation is weak. If demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to intensify. It is expected that steel prices will be under pressure and fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore trended weakly, with a daily decline of 1.14%, showing a pattern of increasing volume and decreasing positions. Currently, overseas supply has stabilized and inventory is high, resulting in a large supply pressure for iron ore. Meanwhile, iron ore demand is weak, and the fundamental situation of the iron ore market is not good. It is expected that iron ore prices will remain under pressure and trend weakly, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In January 2026, the China Construction Machinery Market Index (CMI) was 109.99, an increase of 5.19% year - on - year and a decrease of 3.16% month - on - month. The index value in January was higher than the contraction value, indicating short - term stable operation of the domestic market. The year - on - year growth rate of the CMI index in January increased slightly by 0.18 percentage points, while the month - on - month growth rate decreased by 6.01 percentage points, showing an evolution trend of year - on - year improvement and seasonal month - on - month decline [7]. - According to data from the China Index Academy on February 1, in January, the average price of new residential buildings in 100 Chinese cities was 17,114 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month increase of 0.18% and a year - on - year increase of 2.52%. The average price of second - hand residential buildings was 12,905 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67%. The new housing prices in 100 cities showed a structural month - on - month increase, but the overall market performance was dull, and the month - on - month increase rate narrowed compared with the previous month. The month - on - month decline of second - hand housing prices in 100 cities also narrowed [8]. - According to incomplete statistics from Mysteel, in January 2026, the China Trade Remedy Information Network successively announced 15 anti - dumping and countervailing investigations or rulings on Chinese steel products by foreign countries. The涉案 products included carbon steel galvanized wire mesh, cold - rolled steel sheets, hot - rolled coils, stainless - steel sinks, and silicon - manganese steel wires [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Rebar: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,160 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,311 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan [10]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,260 yuan, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,160 yuan; the national average price was 3,291 yuan, a decrease of 1 yuan [10]. - Tangshan Steel Billet: The price was 2,920 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Zhangjiagang Heavy Scrap: The price was 2,160 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan [10]. - Main Product Spreads: The hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 60 yuan, unchanged; the rebar - scrap spread was 1,040 yuan, a decrease of 30 yuan [10]. - Iron Ore - related: The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 773 yuan, a decrease of 7 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron ore concentrate (wet - based) was 773 yuan, unchanged. The ocean freight from Australia was 9.70 yuan (previous day's data), an increase of 0.01 yuan; from Brazil, it was 25.83 yuan (previous day's data), an increase of 0.82 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 102.65 yuan (previous day's data), a decrease of 2.97 yuan. The iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 102.40 (previous day's data), a decrease of 0.80 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,099 yuan, a decrease of 0.51%. The highest price was 3,118 yuan, the lowest was 3,095 yuan. The trading volume was 685,806 lots, a decrease of 448,598 lots compared with the previous day. The open interest was 1,805,126 lots, an increase of 21,029 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,265 yuan, a decrease of 0.34%. The highest price was 3,283 yuan, the lowest was 3,257 yuan. The trading volume was 335,114 lots, a decrease of 194,382 lots compared with the previous day. The open interest was 1,477,230 lots, a decrease of 21,563 lots [14]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the active contract was 777.5 yuan, a decrease of 1.14%. The highest price was 797.0 yuan, the lowest was 774.5 yuan. The trading volume was 357,056 lots, an increase of 52,492 lots compared with the previous day. The open interest was 518,849 lots, a decrease of 1,835 lots [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - Steel Inventory: The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil over time, including weekly changes, total inventory (steel mills + social inventory), etc. [16][17][22] - Iron Ore Inventory: Charts show the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and domestic mine iron ore concentrate inventory, as well as their seasonal changes and month - on - month changes [24][25][28] - Steel Mill Production: Charts display the blast - furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit situation of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills [32][34][36] 3.5后市研判 (Outlook) - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken, and inventory growth has expanded. The production of construction steel mills has stabilized, with the weekly rebar output increasing slightly by 0.28 tons month - on - month, and supply remains stable at a high level. However, considering that short - process steel mills will gradually stop production approaching the Spring Festival, supply is expected to decrease. Meanwhile, rebar demand continues to weaken, with the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions decreasing month - on - month and remaining at a low level in the same lunar period in recent years. The off - season weak - demand pattern remains unchanged, dragging down steel prices. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [40]. - Hot - rolled Coil: There are changes in both supply and demand, and inventory destocking has narrowed. The production of plate steel mills has stabilized, with the weekly hot - rolled coil output increasing by 3.80 tons month - on - month, rising again and remaining at a relatively high level, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure remains. The demand for hot - rolled coil shows some resilience, with the weekly apparent demand increasing slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the high output of downstream cold - rolled products. However, attention should be paid to the accumulation of contradictions. The external demand for exports is average, and the resilience of demand needs to be tracked. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil are at a high level, and the fundamental situation is weak. If demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to intensify. It is expected that steel prices will be under pressure and fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand pattern has changed little, and inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore is stable. The average daily hot - metal output and imported - ore daily consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month last week, and the contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating. Steel mills mainly conduct normal restocking before the festival, with limited positive effects. It is expected that iron ore demand will continue to be weak. Meanwhile, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has rebounded from a low level, and the shipments of overseas miners have continued to increase, so overseas iron ore supply has stabilized, while domestic iron ore supply is stable. Coupled with high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore remains. It is expected that iron ore prices will remain under pressure and trend weakly, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking [41].