Soochow Securities·2026-02-03 11:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report anticipates that JD Group's retail business is under pressure but is expected to reach a bottom, while losses from new businesses are narrowing [1] - Revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to be CNY 350.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with Non-GAAP net profit expected to be CNY 400 million, primarily impacted by declining retail profits and ongoing investments in new businesses [9] - The retail business is expected to see a revenue decline of 2.91% year-on-year, with significant pressure on the home appliance category due to high base effects and the depletion of government subsidies [9] - New businesses are showing improved performance with reduced losses, particularly in the food delivery segment, which is experiencing healthy growth in order volume [9] - For 2026, profits are expected to recover as the trend of reduced losses in the food delivery business continues, although the impact of government subsidy policies will diminish [9] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for JD Group are as follows: - 2023: CNY 1,084.66 billion - 2024: CNY 1,158.82 billion - 2025: CNY 1,307.63 billion - 2026: CNY 1,380.81 billion - 2027: CNY 1,466.77 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at 3.67% for 2023, 6.80% for 2024, 12.84% for 2025, 5.60% for 2026, and 6.23% for 2027 [1] - Non-GAAP net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: CNY 35.20 billion - 2024: CNY 47.83 billion - 2025: CNY 26.31 billion - 2026: CNY 28.94 billion - 2027: CNY 35.59 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 24.73% for 2023, 35.90% for 2024, -45.00% for 2025, 10.00% for 2026, and 23.00% for 2027 [1] - The latest diluted EPS projections are: - 2023: CNY 11.10 - 2024: CNY 15.00 - 2025: CNY 8.30 - 2026: CNY 9.10 - 2027: CNY 11.20 [1] Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts the EPS (Non-GAAP) forecasts for 2025-2027 to CNY 8.30, CNY 9.10, and CNY 11.20 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.9, 10.8, and 8.8 times [9]