工业硅、多晶硅2月策略报告：供、需双减下存在去库预期，下跌空间有限-20260203

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, in a situation of both supply and demand reduction, there is an expectation of inventory reduction, and the downside price space is limited. In the short - term, it may show a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of enterprise production cuts [3][73]. - For polysilicon, the fundamental contradictions are prominent, and the exchange has tightened speculation. It is advisable to observe more and act less. Enterprises can carry out hedging operations according to their production and operation conditions [4][78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review (1) Futures Market Review of Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - In January 2026, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends. The industrial silicon price was relatively stable, with the main SI2605 contract closing at 8850 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of 0.11%. The polysilicon futures price dropped significantly, with the PS2605 contract closing at 47140 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of 18.61% [9][11]. (2) Basis Performance - For industrial silicon, the basis changed little in January, and there was no arbitrage opportunity between futures and spot. For polysilicon, the basis fluctuated greatly, reaching a high of 6615 yuan/ton in the middle of the month and closing at 2500 yuan/ton at the end of the month [13][16]. II. Analysis of the Industrial Silicon Market (1) Spot Market - The prices of industrial silicon in major production and sales areas changed little. The price of 553 in the north was mainly between 8800 - 9000 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 was stable with a slightly warmer trading atmosphere at the end of the month. There was no arbitrage opportunity between futures and spot [18][21]. (2) Supply - In January, the overall furnace - opening rate of industrial silicon continued to decline, and the output decreased by about 5% month - on - month, expected to further shrink in February and may fall below 300,000 tons [24][28]. (3) Cost and Profit - The average cost of domestic industrial silicon was about 9050 yuan/ton, and the average profit was - 11 yuan/ton, providing certain cost support [30]. (4) Inventory - The total sample inventory of industrial silicon changed little recently, remaining at a relatively high level. Social inventory was stable, production enterprise inventory increased, and downstream enterprise inventory decreased slightly [32]. III. Analysis of the Polysilicon Market (1) Spot Market Price Performance - In January, the polysilicon price first rose and then fell. The N - type material price index decreased by 5% month - on - month, and the N - type dense material price index decreased by 1.9% month - on - month. The downstream market showed different trends, with silicon wafers under pressure and battery cells rising in price [34][35]. (2) Supply - In January 2026, the domestic polysilicon output decreased to about 100,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 13%. It is expected to further decline to 82,000 - 85,000 tons in February [39]. (3) Cost and Profit - The polysilicon industry profit reached a peak in January and then declined to around 6700 yuan/ton at the end of the month, still higher than that of upstream and downstream products in the photovoltaic industry [40][41]. (4) Demand - Silicon wafer market: The price of silicon wafers first rose and then fell in January, with increased output and expected stable or slightly decreased production in February [44][45]. - Battery cell market: The price of battery cells rose in January, but the profit was average, and the demand was suppressed in the short - term. The production is expected to decline in February [49][53]. - Component market: The component price rose, but high - price transactions were limited, and the profit decreased. The output decreased in January and is expected to further decline in February [54][57]. (5) Inventory - As of the end of January, the polysilicon production enterprise inventory was 333,000 tons, showing a continuous inventory accumulation state since September. The futures warehouse receipts increased rapidly, reaching 25,000 tons at the end of January [58][59]. IV. Silicon Industry Demand: Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy (1) Organic Silicon Market - In January, the price of the organic silicon market increased. The output in January was 203,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8%. It is expected to be about 170,000 tons in February [61][64]. (2) Aluminum Alloy Market - In January, the aluminum alloy price rose by 8.5%. The demand was weak, and the supply was expected to shrink. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline slightly in February [69]. V. Industrial Silicon Summary and Future Forecast - Supply: The output decreased by about 5% in January and is expected to further decline in February [71]. - Demand: The demand for industrial silicon declined in January and is expected to continue to decline in February [71]. - Cost and Profit: The cost provides certain support for the price [71]. - Inventory: The inventory is at a relatively high level [71]. - Futures Market: It is expected that the inventory will be reduced in February, and the price decline is limited. In the short - term, it may show a volatile trend [72][73]. VI. Polysilicon Summary and Future Forecast - Supply: The output decreased in January and is expected to further decline in February [74]. - Demand: The demand is weak, and the silicon wafer production is expected to be stable or slightly decrease in February [74]. - Cost and Profit: The profit decreased in January but is still higher than that of upstream and downstream products. Some enterprises started to raise or maintain prices at the beginning of February [75]. - Inventory: The inventory is at a high level, which restricts the price increase [76][77]. - Futures Market: The market is in a critical stage of supply - demand reconstruction, facing short - term fluctuations and adjustments. It is advisable to observe more and act less [78].