沥青日报：震荡运行-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate weakly in early February, with an anti - arbitrage strategy recommended. The current base price is at a moderately low level, and it is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventories available before March. The geopolitical situation has cooled, the cold wave has weakened, and crude oil prices have fallen after rising [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year. The operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined last week, and the road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 14% due to funding and weather constraints. The shipments in Shandong decreased significantly, and the national shipments decreased 5.80% to 214,500 tons week - on - week. The asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat and is near the lowest level in recent years. The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and costs. Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residual oil this week, and the asphalt operating rate will remain low [1]. - Demand side: Rigid demand in the north has basically stagnated, but there is demand for stocking and arbitrage. Southern projects are also gradually entering the final stage. The decline in asphalt prices in Shandong is relatively small, and the basis has been repaired and is currently at a moderately low level [1]. 3.2期现行情 - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract fell 1.72% to 3,309 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,283 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,331 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 16,712 to 110,778 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract rose to - 59 yuan/ton, at a moderately low level [3]. 3.3基本面跟踪 - Supply side: The resumption of production of individual refineries was postponed, and the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage point compared with January - October 2025 but was still negative. From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline from - 4.7% in January - November 2025. From January to December 2025, the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased 2.2% year - on - year, continuing to decline from - 1.1% in January - November 2025. As of the week of January 30, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined, and the road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 14% due to funding and weather constraints. From January to December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock was 8.3%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to November, and the recovery of the medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises was still weak [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 30, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 13.6% compared with the week of January 23 and is near the lowest level in recent years [4].