热卷日报：减仓下跌-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the hot-rolled coil futures declined with reduced positions and trading volume, hitting a new low in the past 20 trading days. The daily line broke below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages. In the short term, it is expected to remain weak. The short-term pressure is around the 5-day moving average. Fundamentally, the upward movement is restricted by high inventory and weak demand, while the downward movement is marginally supported by the cost side (iron ore and coke). After the Spring Festival, two points need to be closely tracked: first, the inventory depletion speed. If the inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, the price may continue to decline. Second, the implementation pace of "dual-focus" projects and infrastructure investment. The policy support strength will determine the medium-term rebound space [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情 Review - Futures Price: On Tuesday, the hot-rolled coil futures main contract reduced its position by 21,563 lots, with a trading volume of 335,114 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,257 yuan, and the high was 3,283 yuan. It declined with reduced positions during the day. From the daily moving average, it short-term broke below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, closing at 3,265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan or 0.34% [1] - Spot Price: The mainstream hot-rolled coil price in Shanghai is reported at 3,270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between the spot and futures prices is 5 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 29, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 38,000 tons to 3.0921 million tons. This week's output is at a medium to high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production pace before the Spring Festival, with increased production enthusiasm [4] - Demand: As of January 29, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 14,500 tons to 3.1141 million tons. The apparent demand slightly increased this week and is at a relatively good level in the same period over the years [4] - Inventory: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 22,200 tons to 3.5558 million tons week-on-week (the social inventory decreased by 28,100 tons week-on-week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 6,100 tons). The total inventory decreased week-on-week, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The overall inventory is in the process of destocking [4] - Policy: A new regulation on steel export license management was introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Deeply rectifying involution-style competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Expectation of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("15th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace material [6] - Bearish Factors: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]