PVC日报：高开后震荡运行-20260203

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC market has complex influencing factors. Although the low - valued PVC disk is relatively strong due to the continuation of export rush and the push for mercury - free transformation, the overall chemical sentiment has weakened, and downstream enterprises are on holiday. The PVC disk fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to observe cautiously [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 0.19 percentage points to 78.93%, being at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points, and the downstream's willingness to stock up actively is low. Due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and the impact of the cold wave in the US, there is a rush to export, and domestic export orders continue to increase. The export price of Formosa Plastics' PVC in February increased by $40/ton. Social inventory continues to increase and is still at a high level. The real estate is in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. The comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, but the current production decline is limited. February is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand, and social inventory continues to increase [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract opened higher, increased positions, and fluctuated. The lowest price was 5006 yuan/ton, the highest was 5106 yuan/ton, and it closed at 5071 yuan/ton, up 0.30% and above the 20 - day moving average. The position increased by 28,428 lots to 1,049,478 lots [2] - On February 3, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4825 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 5071 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 246 yuan/ton, weakening by 15 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by devices such as Yibin Tianyuan and Xinjiang Tianye, the PVC operating rate increased by 0.19 percentage points to 78.93%, being at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), and Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in the second half of 2025. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua had a trial production in December 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real estate is in the adjustment stage. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The sales area of commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%. The new construction area of houses was 587.70 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The completed area of houses was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%. As of the week of February 1, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 22.42% month - on - month, but it was still at a low level in the same period in recent years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of January 29, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.45% month - on - month to 1.2064 million tons, 60.54% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and was still at a high level [6]