南华浩淞天然橡胶期货气象分析报告：除印尼产区外，其他产区降雨偏少

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the weak La Nina phenomenon continues, and there is a probability of it transitioning to a weak El Nino phenomenon between June and August, which may intensify weather disturbances in the rubber - producing areas [1]. - Except for the Indonesian产区, rainfall in other rubber - producing areas is relatively low, which may have an impact on rubber production [1][2]. - The supply of natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with a high - yield period from September to November and a low - yield period from February to March [212]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Important Weather Warnings - Climate Dynamics - ENSO: The current Nino3.4 index is - 0.4 (+0.1), and the weak La Nina phenomenon is expected to last until February 2026 and then gradually transition to ENSO neutral. There is a probability of over 45% that it will turn into a weak El Nino phenomenon between June and August, which may increase drought risks in the western Pacific - surrounding producing areas [1]. - IOD: The DMI index is - 0.52, and the Indian Ocean Dipole has further weakened compared to last week, reducing its impact on rainfall around Indonesia [1]. - MJO: The Madden - Julian Oscillation is currently in the first - stage area and is expected to develop towards the third stage in mid - February, affecting the eastern coast of the Indian Ocean (around Indonesia) [1]. 3.2 Production Area Conditions - China - Yunnan: The Yunnan producing area has stopped tapping. January precipitation was lower than the same - period level, and soil humidity is normal. Low temperatures are expected, and there is a need to be vigilant against local cold damage [2]. - Hainan: The entire Hainan Island has stopped tapping. There has been scattered rainfall in the eastern part of Hainan, with less rain compared to the same period. In the next week, it will be mainly sunny to cloudy with local showers. As of the end of January, 12 cities and counties in the whole island had mild to moderate drought [2]. - Southeast Asia - Thailand: Thailand has emerged from the rainy season, and temperatures are slowly rising. There has been little rainfall in the whole country in the past two weeks, and soil humidity is lower than the historical level. The northeastern and northern producing areas will gradually stop tapping in mid - February [2]. - Vietnam: Rainfall in Vietnam has been scarce recently, and soil humidity is slightly low. High - altitude rubber plantations are affected by low night - time temperatures, resulting in low dry content of latex. Tapping will gradually stop in mid - February [2]. - Cambodia: Temperatures in the Cambodian producing area will rise slightly, but rainfall is scarce, and it is approaching the end of the tapping season [2]. - Myanmar: There has been continuous low rainfall in the southern part of the Myanmar producing area, with a risk of drought and a decrease in effective latex output [5]. - Laos: Rainfall in the Lao producing area has been scarce recently, and soil humidity has declined. It is expected to stop production at the same time as other producing areas at the same latitude [5]. - Indonesia: Rainfall in the Indonesian producing area has increased recently, with heavy rainfall in some areas. Tapping in the southern producing area is more affected [5]. - Malaysia: The Malay Peninsula producing area is currently in the peak of the rainy season, but January precipitation was lower than the same period last year. Two concentrated rainfalls are expected in the next two weeks, which will help improve soil moisture [5]. - Philippines: Precipitation in the Philippine producing area is slightly lower than the historical level. There will be concentrated rainfall in the Mindanao area in the next week, which will improve soil humidity [5]. - South Asia - India: Rainfall in various Indian producing areas has been scarce recently, and soil humidity is gradually decreasing. Most of the northeastern producing areas have entered the tapping - stop period, and the southwestern producing area is also approaching the end of the tapping season [6]. - Sri Lanka: The Sri Lankan producing area has entered the dry season. Rainfall increased compared to last week, and soil humidity has recovered. Rainfall will decrease in the next week [6]. - West Africa - Cote d'Ivoire: It is currently in the dry season, with a seasonal decrease in precipitation and rising temperatures. Scattered precipitation has maintained normal soil moisture, and the climate is relatively suitable [7]. 3.3 Production Area Rainfall Data Summary The report provides detailed data on the cumulative precipitation, year - on - year changes, weekly cumulative precipitation, weekly differences, and forecast precipitation for various producing areas in the current month [8][10]. 3.4 Production Area Sudden Disaster Monitoring - There are active low - pressure systems in the western and southeastern parts of Indonesia, with increased cloud and rain in the area [11]. - In Thailand, most of the main producing areas have less rainfall, and the water levels of most rivers are low (less than 10% capacity) [11]. 3.5 Other Appendices - Appendix 1: Global natural rubber is mainly planted in Southeast Asia, accounting for about 80%. Thailand has the largest planting area, followed by Indonesia. In terms of production, Thailand accounts for more than 30% of the global output, while Indonesia accounts for 15%, and Cote d'Ivoire accounts for more than 10% [202]. - Appendix 2: The phenological period of rubber trees is divided into five stages, and the new leaf growth period is sensitive to weather and natural disasters. Short - term rubber supply is more affected by weather factors, and different weather conditions have different impacts on rubber production during the tapping and non - tapping periods [210]. - Appendix 3: The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality. The high - yield period is from September to November, and the low - yield period is from February to March. The tapping and non - tapping times vary by latitude [212].