纯碱日报：短期震荡-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term shock rating for the soda ash market [1] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The core contradiction in the soda ash market is the continuous inventory accumulation caused by strong supply and weak demand, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not improved. In the short term, the price may maintain a shock operation, but in February, as the Spring Festival approaches and downstream enterprises gradually shut down for holidays, the demand may further weaken, and the price may be adjusted weakly [4] 3. Summary according to the Directory Market Review - Futures Market: The main soda ash contract opened high and went low, with a weak shock during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band showed a narrowing horn, indicating a short - term shock signal. The intraday pressure was near the upper track of the Bollinger Band, and the short - term support was near the lower track. The trading volume decreased by 756,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 12,315 lots. The intraday high was 1215, the low was 1187, and the closing price was 1201, down 14 yuan/ton or 1.15% from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot Market: The spot market remained weakly stable. The enterprise's equipment was operating stably, and the reception of new orders was average. Downstream enterprises had a certain raw material reserve, with poor stocking willingness, and mainly purchased at low prices as needed [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 49 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 29, the domestic soda ash output was 783,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,400 tons or 1.47%. Among them, the light soda ash output was 362,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,200 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.19%, down 2.23% from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 88.99%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.34%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 88.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%. The overall supply was abundant [2] - Inventory: As of February 2, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5604 million tons, an increase of 16,200 tons or 1.05% compared with last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 837,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,400 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 722,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,800 tons. The inventory was at a historical high, and the inventory accumulation trend was obvious [2] - Demand: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 760,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.94%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 97.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.92%. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory at low prices for rigid demand, with poor purchasing enthusiasm. The pre - holiday stocking was insufficient, and there was no large - scale centralized inventory replenishment [2] - Profit: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 26.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.5 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 88.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.95 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, with a slight decline in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current capacity utilization rate of soda ash remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is still increasing. The core contradiction is the continuous inventory accumulation caused by strong supply and weak demand, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not improved. In the short term, the price is supported by anti - involution sentiment, but the increasing inventory pressure limits the price rebound space. The short - term disk price may maintain a shock operation. However, in February, as the Spring Festival approaches and downstream enterprises gradually shut down for holidays, the pre - holiday demand may further weaken, and the price may be adjusted weakly. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the changes in downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4]