软商品日报：震荡偏弱-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a general rating of "oscillating weakly" for the soft commodity industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation pattern before the festival. The sugar market is at a cyclical bottom, with prices oscillating at a low level and no obvious short - term upward drive [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Cotton - Supply side: The pressure of the previous high - yield has been basically digested. Although the output increased significantly, the increase in commercial inventory is much lower than the output increase. The market circulation supply is relatively tight, and the high spot basis continues to support cotton prices [1] - Demand side: It was resilient before, but affected by the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference, imported cotton and yarn impact the domestic market. Since January, textile mills' profits have been continuously compressed, some inland mills' losses have expanded, and some enterprises plan to have an early holiday. There is no clear short - term demand trend [1] Sugar - International situation: Consultancy Stonex expects the 2026/27 sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region to be 40.7 million tons, 0.8 million tons less than the previous estimate, and the ethanol production to be 36.5 billion liters, 0.4 billion liters more than the previous estimate. As of January 31, 2026, India's 2025/26 sugar production reached 19.503 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.024 million tons or 18.35%, and the number of operating sugar mills increased by 14 to 515 [2] - Domestic situation: The domestic sugar futures price declined with the market, but it is approaching the southern sugar mills' production cost, so the downside is limited [2]