玻璃日报：短期震荡-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term volatile rating for the glass industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The core contradiction of glass lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - world demand" (real estate downturn + seasonal off - season), and high inventory is the biggest pressure for the disk to rebound. Although policies provide short - term emotional support, the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved. With the approaching Spring Festival in February, downstream demand is expected to weaken, and short - term prices may maintain volatile operation, with a possible weakening trend later. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The glass main contract opened and closed higher today, with an intraday volatile and strong trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band shows a contracting horn, indicating a short - term volatile signal. The intraday pressure is near the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages on the daily line, and the support is near the lower Bollinger Band. The trading volume decreased by 415,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 34,986 lots. The intraday high was 1084, the low was 1062, and the closing price was 1072, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.28% compared with the previous settlement price [1] - Spot market: In North China, prices are mostly stable with some increases, and there is appropriate restocking; in East China, trading has become lighter, and downstream buyers maintain rigid - demand purchases; in Central China, the market is running stably, and middle and downstream buyers are rational, mainly for rigid demand; in South China, except for some flexible transactions, most prices remain stable, and most downstream enterprises are in the process of winding up, with purchases mainly for rigid demand [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China is 1020, with a basis of - 52 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 29, the total output of float glass this week was 1.057 million tons, flat compared with the previous week and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% week - on - week; the industry average capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, flat compared with the previous week. In January, 2 production lines were cold - repaired, but 1 production line was newly restarted and ignited, and the overall supply pressure has not been significantly relieved [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or - 1.22% week - on - week and + 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand of most enterprises from north to south is gradually winding up [2] - Import and export: In December 2025, China's float glass exports were 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month; the net export was 72,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% compared with the same period last year [2] - Profit: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, up 3.57 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, down 3.39 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan/ton week - on - week [3]