铁矿日报：下游累库，刚需存支撑-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market has a slightly weakening trend with the futures contract showing a back structure and positive basis, and the overall disk is slightly weak in oscillation. The supply pressure eases due to reduced arrivals, and the demand side has stable rigid demand. Although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills, and the fundamental contradiction is not prominent [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures prices: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated weakly during the day, closing at 777.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton or 0.7% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 357,000 lots, the open interest was 519,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.875 billion yuan. It shows a short - term weakening oscillation [1]. - Spot prices: The mainstream varieties of port spot, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, decreased by 4 to 791 yuan, and Super Special powder decreased by 4 to 678 yuan. The main swap price was 101.95 (-0.85) US dollars/ton. The spot is firm, and the swap price slightly declined [1]. - Basis and spread: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price is 830.1 yuan/ton, and the basis is 52.6 yuan/ton, with a slight expansion of the basis. The spread between May and September contracts of iron ore is 17.5 yuan, and the spread between September and January contracts is 11 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts present a back structure and a positive basis, showing a short - term breakdown and a weakened oscillation [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased slightly, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries still declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, and there are expected disturbances on the supply side due to weather. The short - term supply pressure eases, but the inventory pressure is still increasing [2]. - Demand: The molten iron production decreased slightly, the steel mill profitability weakened, the rigid demand was relatively stable, the steel mill replenishment speed accelerated, and the steel mill inventory increased rapidly. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of replenishment demand [2]. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory decreased, the steel mill inventory increased significantly, the replenishment speed accelerated as the Spring Festival approached, and the total inventory pressure was still accumulating [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic macro: This week continues the basic pattern of "weak reality, stable policy, and strong expectation". The domestic demand recovery rhythm is still slow, the price remains low, the upstream improvement is limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the medium - and long - term financing willingness of residents and enterprises is weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools are still being implemented, and the macro - environment is mainly for support. The market still needs to wait for further confirmation of policy effects and data [4]. - Overseas macro: The US consumption is still resilient, but the income growth slows down, the savings rate is at a low level, and consumption more depends on credit and employment stability, with weakening internal impetus. The core inflation continues to cool down, the commodity - end pressure eases, but the stickiness of service items still exists. The market trading focus has shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, especially the possibility of a hawkish candidate taking office. Overall, the overseas macro - environment is still conducive to risk assets maintaining resilience, but policy uncertainty increases, and asset pricing differentiation intensifies [4].