山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260203

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The short - term risk - aversion factors such as trade wars and geopolitical risks have eased in the short term but still exist in the medium and long term. The new Fed chairman's expectation is hawkish. The US employment is weakening while inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has slowed down. - The geopolitical tensions around resource disputes in Greenland and North American trade tariff frictions have shown signs of easing. Trump announced a one - week cease - fire in some areas of Ukraine, and the risks of trade wars and geopolitical changes have eased in the short term. - Trump nominated former Fed governor Warsh to replace Powell, which triggered hawkish expectations. The US PPI in December had the largest monthly increase in five months, indicating potential inflation acceleration in the coming months, allowing the Fed to maintain stable interest rates for some time. The market expects the Fed to complete interest rate cuts this year, with the next cut possibly in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure at high levels. - There are risks of demand falsification for silver, platinum, and palladium. Silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong. Palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. - It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating strongly in the short term, oscillating at a low level in the medium term, and the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged [1]. 3. Summary by Section Gold - Strategy: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price Data: International prices of Comex gold active contract and London gold decreased, while domestic prices of Shanghai gold main contract and gold T + D increased. The basis and spreads showed various changes, and the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, and gold - oil ratio also had different trends. - Position and Inventory: The positions of Comex gold, Shanghai gold main contract, and gold T + D changed, and the inventories of LBMA, Comex gold, and Shanghai gold also had corresponding adjustments. The CFTC management fund net position decreased, and the gold ETF (SPDR) had a slight increase [2]. Silver - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management and stop - loss/take - profit. - Price Data: International and domestic silver prices decreased. The basis and spreads of silver also changed, and the position and inventory data showed different trends. The CFTC management fund net position decreased, and the silver ETF (iShare) increased [3]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with good position management and stop - loss/take - profit. - Price Data: International and domestic platinum prices decreased significantly. The basis and spreads changed, and the position and inventory data also had corresponding adjustments. The CFTC management fund net position decreased [6]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management and stop - loss/take - profit. - Price Data: International and domestic palladium prices decreased. The basis and spreads changed, and the position and inventory data also had corresponding adjustments. The CFTC management fund net position remained unchanged [8]. Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Monetary Attributes: The Federal Reserve's key interest rates decreased, and the total assets increased slightly. The M2 growth rate decreased slightly. The ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, and various interest rate spreads changed. The US inflation data showed different trends, and the US economic growth data such as GDP had positive changes. - Employment and Real Estate: The US labor market data such as unemployment rate, non - farm employment, and labor participation rate changed. The real estate market data such as existing home sales increased, while the NAHB housing market index decreased. - Consumption and Industry: US consumption data such as retail sales and personal consumption expenditure had different trends. The industrial production index and capacity utilization rate changed, and the trade data such as exports, imports, and trade balance also had corresponding adjustments. - Central Bank Reserves and Other Data: The central bank gold reserves of China, the US, and the world remained relatively stable. The IMF foreign exchange reserve proportion of different currencies changed. The geopolitical risk index decreased, and the VIX index decreased slightly. The CRB commodity index decreased, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was relatively stable [9][11]. Fed Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from March 2026 to December 2027 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions [14].