玉米淀粉日报-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the recent drought in Argentina, the supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. The spot price of corn in North China is stable, while that in Northeast China is falling. The spot price of corn is still weak in the short - term, and the purchase price at northern ports has declined today. The price of wheat in North China is strong, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. The market is trading on the increased grain sales in North China before the Spring Festival, and there is still selling pressure on Northeast corn later. The rebound space of corn spot is limited, and there is still room for C03 to fall, but the decline of C07 is limited. The 03 starch is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [4][7][9] - The price of starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. Although the pre - holiday stocking is basically over, the North China spot is strong, and enterprises are still at a loss. The 03 starch follows corn to fluctuate weakly, and the spot price of starch is expected to stabilize in the short - term [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - Futures Disk: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2254, up 5 (0.22%); C2605 closed at 2270, up 10 (0.44%); C2509 closed at 2297, up 12 (0.52%). For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2570, up 6 (0.23%); CS2605 closed at 2572, unchanged; CS2509 closed at 2601, up 9 (0.35%) [2] - Spot and Basis: Corn spot prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Qinggang was 2135, down 10; the price in Songyuan Jiajie was 2200, unchanged. The basis for corn in different regions ranged from - 162 to 143. Starch spot prices also varied, with some rising, such as Yufeng up 30, and some unchanged. The basis for starch in different regions ranged from 128 to 348 [2] - Spreads: For corn inter - period spreads, C01 - C05 was - 16, down 5; for starch inter - period spreads, CS01 - CS05 was - 2, up 6; for cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 was 304, down 3 [2] 3.2 Market Judgment - Corn: The drought in Argentina has led to a bottom - rebound of US corn, but it still fluctuates at the bottom due to global supply pressure. The import profit of foreign corn is rising. The spot price of corn in Northeast China is falling, and the price in North China is stable. The price difference between wheat and corn is large, and corn has cost - effectiveness. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building [4][7] - Starch: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the spot price of corn in Shandong is stable. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The price of starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. The by - product price is strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 03 starch is expected to fluctuate weakly [8] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel. Go short - term long on 07 and 05 corn on dips [10] - Arbitrage: Conduct a 3 - 7 corn reverse spread [11] 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Adopt a short - term cumulative put strategy and conduct rolling operations [12] 3.5 Related Figures - The report provides six figures, showing the North Port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread over different time periods [16][17][22]