银河期货航运日报-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The settlement price of the SCFIS European Line released on Monday slightly exceeded market expectations, driving the near - month futures to slightly repair the discount. The market is in a vacuum period of spot trading, and the futures trend is oscillating and slightly strong. The 2026/2/3 closing price of EC2604 was 1,237.9 points, up 4.5% from the previous trading day [6]. - In terms of spot freight rates, the prices of major shipping companies have declined to varying degrees. From a fundamental perspective, the demand is gradually entering a downward phase after peaking, and the supply in March has increased compared to the previous week's schedule. Geopolitical situations are volatile, and the resumption of large - scale shipping on the European Line in the first half of the year is still difficult. The impact of bad weather on shipping schedules is expected to vary in different regions. Spot freight rates are expected to have limited fluctuations around the Spring Festival, but attention should be paid to the decline rate after the festival [7]. - Regarding trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading of the 04 contract due to many short - term disturbances and large expected fluctuations. For arbitrage, a rolling operation of the long 6 - short 10 spread is recommended [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Futures Contract Quotes - EC2602: The closing price was 1,737.8, up 17.8 (1.03%), with a trading volume of 612 (up 108.16%) and an open interest of 1,883 (down 19.50%) [4]. - EC2604: The closing price was 1,237.9, up 53.3 (4.50%), with a trading volume of 29,296 (down 10.73%) and an open interest of 34,229 (up 1.25%) [4]. - EC2606: The closing price was 1,533.7, up 20.6 (1.36%), with a trading volume of 3,147 (down 47.06%) and an open interest of 13,458 (up 6.83%) [4]. - EC2608: The closing price was 1,597.9, down 10.0 (- 0.62%), with a trading volume of 353 (down 68.79%) and an open interest of 1,479 (up 2.00%) [4]. - EC2610: The closing price was 1,128.6, down 1.4 (- 0.12%), with a trading volume of 1,355 (down 45.89%) and an open interest of 7,677 (down 2.63%) [4]. - EC2612: The closing price was 1,439.0, up 34.0 (2.42%), with a trading volume of 29 (down 27.50%) and an open interest of 128 (up 5.79%) [4]. 3.1.2 Month - spread Structure - For example, the spread of EC02 - EC04 was 500, down 35.5; the spread of EC02 - EC06 was 204, down 2.8, etc. [4]. 3.2 Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European Line: The price was 1792.14 points, down 3.61% week - on - week and 21.20% year - on - year [4]. - SCFIS US West Line: The price was 1101.40 points, down 14.91% week - on - week and 55.24% year - on - year [4]. - SCFI Comprehensive Index: The price was 1316.75 points, down 9.68% week - on - week and 38.20% year - on - year [4]. - Other routes such as Shanghai - West Africa, Shanghai - South America, etc., also showed varying degrees of decline in freight rates [4]. 3.3 Fuel Costs - WTI Crude Oil Near - month Contract: The price was $61.45 per barrel, down 5.72% week - on - week and 14.82% year - on - year [4]. - Brent Crude Oil Near - month Contract: The price was $65.49 per barrel, down 6.22% week - on - week and 13.4% year - on - year [4]. 3.4 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations 3.4.1 Market Analysis - The SCFIS European Line settlement price on Monday exceeded expectations, mainly due to the impact of shipping schedule delays. It is expected that the index will still lag behind [6]. - In the spot market, the freight rates of major shipping companies have decreased. The demand is peaking and then declining, and the supply in March has increased. Geopolitical situations are unstable, and bad weather affects shipping schedules [7]. 3.4.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see for the 04 contract due to short - term disturbances and large expected fluctuations [8]. - Arbitrage: A rolling operation of the long 6 - short 10 spread is recommended [9]. 3.5 Industry News - The US and India agreed to establish a trade agreement. The US will reduce the reciprocal tariff on India from 25% to 18%, and India will gradually eliminate tariffs and non - tariff barriers against the US [10]. - From the 6th week (February 2 - 8) to the 10th week (March 2 - 8), 103 out of about 704 scheduled flights were cancelled, accounting for 15% of the planned flights. Cancellations were mainly on the Trans - Pacific Eastbound route (59%), followed by the Asia - Europe/Mediterranean route (33%) and the Trans - Atlantic Westbound route (8%) [10]. 3.6 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple figures such as the SCFIS European Line Index and SCFIS US West Line Index, SCFI Comprehensive Index, and container freight rates of different routes, as well as the basis of EC02 and EC04 contracts [11][17][19]