铁矿石周报20260203：供需宽松，盘面震荡整理-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current iron ore supply and demand is loose, and the market will maintain a volatile trend in the short term. The overall supply has increased slightly, with a small decline in Australian ore, a slight increase in Brazilian and non - mainstream ores. The arrival volume has slightly decreased but remains at a high level, and domestic ore production has slightly declined. On the demand side, affected by profit compression and environmental protection restrictions, steel mills have insufficient willingness to increase production, and iron water production remains stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the inventory replenishment is coming to an end, and the support from inventory replenishment is weakening. Port inventories continue to increase, and steel mill inventories have rebounded [5][6]. - The trading strategy is range - bound [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - Spot prices have slightly declined [7] - The price of 62% Australian powder ore in the forward spot market is in US dollars per dry ton [9] - The price of 62% PB powder at Qingdao Port and 66% iron concentrate powder in Tangshan is in yuan per ton [12] Mineral Powder Spreads - The spread between high - and medium - grade ores has slightly widened, while the spread between medium - and low - grade ores has shrunk [13] - The spread between PB powder and Mac powder has rebounded [16] - The 5 - 9 spread is oscillating at a low level, and the basis of the 05 contract has slightly declined [21] Relative Valuation - The ratio of steel to ore is oscillating at a low level, and the ratio of ore to coke has slightly increased [31] Supply - Global shipments have slightly increased, with non - mainstream ore shipments rising slightly. From January 26th to February 1st, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3094.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 116.2 tons [5][37] - Australian ore shipments to China have slightly declined, while Brazilian ore shipments have increased. Australian shipments were 1820.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17 tons; Brazilian shipments were 692.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 147.4 tons [5][41] - FMG shipments to China have significantly declined, while BHP shipments have continued to increase [45] - RT shipments to China have slightly increased, and VALE shipments have stopped falling and rebounded [49] - The shipping freight index has continued to rise [53] - The arrival volume has slightly declined but remains at a medium - high level. The total arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2484.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45.3 tons [5][57] - Domestic iron concentrate powder production has slightly declined. As of January 30th, the daily average output of iron concentrate powder from 186 mines across the country was 46.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 59.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11% [5][60] Demand - Steel mill blast furnace profits have slightly declined [66] - Blast furnace operation has changed little, and iron water production has remained stable. The daily average iron water production in the week of January 30th was 227.98 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12 tons [5][72] Inventory - The port ore handling volume has stopped falling and rebounded, and port inventories have continued to increase. The number of ships at the port has decreased by 12 to 106 [5][81] - Australian ore inventories have continued to increase, while Brazilian ore inventories have slightly declined [85] - Coarse powder inventories have remained at a high level, and lump ore inventories have slightly declined [93] - Before the Spring Festival, steel mills have replenished their inventories, and imported ore inventories have continued to rise [101]