鸡蛋日报-20260203

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the Spring Festival, the overall demand for egg spot has been good recently, with spot prices rising. The profit situation is favorable, leading to a decrease in market culling enthusiasm. Considering that the egg consumption season will enter a slack period after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the overall reduction has weakened due to the recent good egg prices. It is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices of JD01, JD05, and JD09 remained unchanged from the previous trading day, with closing prices of 3683, 3445, and 3882 respectively. The spreads between different months also remained stable, such as 01 - 05 at 238, 05 - 09 at -437, and 09 - 01 at 199. The ratios of egg to corn and egg to soybean meal for different contracts also showed no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.63 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.86 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/jin. The national mainstream egg prices continued to decline, with prices in various regions such as Beijing, Northeast China, and Shandong mostly falling. The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 4.38 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [2][4]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - In December, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 0.08 billion from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than expected. The monthly output of laying - hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in December was about 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. From January 16th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was about 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week, and the average culling age was 485 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. As of January 16th, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7391 tons, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous week, at a historical low. As of January 15th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 yuan from the previous week, and the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming on January 9th was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week. As of January 15th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, and in the circulation link was 1.05 days, both slightly decreased from the previous week [5][6]. 3.4 Trading Logic - Near the Spring Festival, the overall demand for egg spot is good, with prices rising. The profit situation is favorable, and the culling enthusiasm has decreased. The culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas from January 23rd was 16.27 million, a decrease of 5% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 490 days, an increase of 5 days from the previous week. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption slack period, it is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9].