玉米期货月报-20260203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market is entering the pre - festival purchasing and selling sprint stage. The overall grain sales progress has exceeded 50%, but the pre - festival concentrated grain sales pressure has not been fully released. Northeast grain sales are faster than last year, while North China is slower. Pre - festival supply pressure is controllable, and prices will fluctuate within a limited range. After the Spring Festival, there may be phased concentrated grain sales pressure. Attention should be paid to the grain sales rhythm, downstream demand recovery, and market sentiment [6][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn Market Structure - Since the end of December, the price of the corn main contract has rebounded from a low of 2183 yuan/ton and reached a high of 2314 yuan/ton on January 26, then entered a high - level correction. The grain sales progress in the Northeast is 62%, and 53% in North China. The market circulation of grain sources has increased, but farmers are still reluctant to sell high - quality grain. State reserve and local reserve corn supplies are increasing, which may put pressure on prices. Downstream enterprises are near the balance of profit and loss and have limited acceptance of high - priced corn, and pre - festival inventory - building demand is approaching the end [8] - The overall structure shows a Contango structure, with 05 contract at a discount to 09, and 09 at a discount to 01 [9] 3.2 Market行情Analysis 3.2.1 Loose supply in the corn market lays the foundation for low prices - The new - season corn market shows "slightly increasing supply and stable rigid demand". The national corn output in 2026 is expected to be 301.24 million tons, an increase of 3.38 million tons compared with 2024. Imported corn auctions and wheat substitution have made the market supply more balanced. The planting cost in the Northeast has decreased by 50 - 150 yuan/mu. After calculation, the port collection price is about 2000 yuan/ton, and the bottom of the corn futures price is between 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton [12][13][14] - There are still regional and structural contradictions in corn production. About 20 - 30 million tons of North China corn has quality problems, which has increased the demand for Northeast corn. The current grain sales progress in the Northeast is about 65%, and 55% in North China. Farmers are still reluctant to sell high - quality grain, and the increase in state and local reserve corn supplies may put pressure on prices [17] - In December 2025, China imported 800,000 tons of corn, a year - on - year increase of 1.35%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 2.65 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41%. It is expected that the import volume in early 2026 will remain low, and the import volume in 2025/2026 is estimated to be 4 million tons, an increase of 2.18 million tons compared with the previous year [19] - In 2025, wheat production increased by about 4% year - on - year. Due to weak demand, wheat has a price advantage over corn, and the estimated substitution volume is between 20 - 30 million tons. As the price difference between corn and wheat reverses, wheat substitution is expected to decrease [24] 3.2.2 Downstream demand remains rigid but has no incremental growth, with limited boosting effect - In the feed and breeding sector, the policy has promoted the reduction of sow inventory since July, but the process is slow. As of December 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, and the sow inventory was 39.61 million. The pig price is below the cost, and the short - term demand for corn feed is mainly rigid. The recent breeding profit has rebounded slightly, with the profit of purchasing piglets at 47.8 yuan/head and the profit of self - breeding sows at 96.27 yuan/head as of January 30 [29] - In the deep - processing sector, after the price increase of new - season corn, the cost has increased significantly, and enterprises are in a loss state. The total regional processing profit is - 49.11 yuan/ton. Enterprises' enthusiasm for inventory replenishment is affected, and feed enterprises mainly purchase on demand [30] 3.2.3 Inventory is at a phased low, increasing price elasticity - As of January 30, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 1.63 million tons, and the inventory in the Guangdong port was 660,000 tons. The decline in northern port inventory may be due to the depletion of farmers' surplus grain and traders' hoarding. The decline in southern port inventory reflects the decrease in arrivals and stable downstream提货. The overall decline in port inventory makes the market more sensitive to price fluctuations [36] 3.3 Market Outlook - The pre - festival supply pressure is controllable, and prices will fluctuate in a narrow range. After the Spring Festival, due to temperature rise and farmers' storage pressure, there may be phased concentrated grain sales pressure. Attention should be paid to the grain sales rhythm, downstream demand recovery, and market sentiment [6][38]