豆粕期货月报-20260203

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current soybean meal market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak realities." The trading logic of the external market revolves around the performance of US soybean exports and the supply pressure from South America. Short - term price premiums caused by weather disturbances in South America lead to market fluctuations. In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US trade policies and the implementation of biodiesel policies. However, the overall tone of loose global supply still suppresses the global soybean price center, with limited upside potential for prices. In China, supply is expected to be tight in the first quarter, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will remain after the arrival of new South American soybeans. Currently, downstream buyers are building positions in far - month contracts due to suitable soybean meal prices, resulting in high trading volumes in far - month contracts. However, spot trading volumes have not increased significantly during the Spring Festival stocking period, falling short of market expectations. The price center of soybean meal is oscillating downward, and cautious operation is recommended. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost End - US Soybeans: In January, China completed the procurement plan of 12 million tons of US soybeans ahead of schedule, which was mainly a policy - based purchase by COFCO and Sinograin. The market doubts the subsequent sales of US soybean orders. As of the week ending January 22, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 819,000 tons, a 67% decrease from the previous week, a 50% decrease from the four - week average, and the lowest in 10 weeks. With the upcoming listing of South American soybeans, which are more price - attractive to Chinese buyers, there is little motivation for Chinese buyers to continue purchasing US soybeans. The implementation of the US biodiesel policy has become the focus of the market. In January, the CBOT soybean price first declined and then rebounded. Although strong NOPA crushing data and South American weather issues provided short - term support, the overall loose global supply situation still restricts the price upside. [6] - Brazil: Brazil's soybean harvest was initially delayed due to rainfall, but analysts still expect a bumper harvest. ABIOVE predicts Brazil's soybean output to be 177.124 million tons, higher than last year's 171.481 million tons. CONAB estimates the 2025/26 season output to reach a record 176.124 million tons, a 2.7% year - on - year increase. As of January 30, the soybean price at the Paranagua port decreased. The bumper harvest in Brazil lays the foundation for a loose global soybean supply pattern in the 2025/26 season, and short - term weather disturbances will only cause market fluctuations. [7] Profit - Supported by costs and the boost in terminal demand during the Spring Festival stocking period, the oil mill's crushing profit has strengthened. [11] Supply End - Arrival Quantity: In the first quarter, due to the switch of the export windows of US and Brazilian soybeans, the quantity of imported soybeans will seasonally decline. The estimated arrival quantities in January, February, and March are about 7.72 million tons, 5.005 million tons, and 4.8 million tons respectively. In 2025, the total annual import of soybeans was 111.833 million tons, a 6.46% year - on - year increase. [12] - Crushing and Operating Rate: In January 2026, the domestic soybean crushing volume was 9.3672 million tons, a 2.76% month - on - month decrease, and the comprehensive operating rate was 57.71%, a 2.73% month - on - month decrease. Due to the decline in soybean arrivals in the first quarter, the operating rate and crushing volume of oil mills may decrease, and soybean meal may experience a short - term supply shortage. [12][13] Demand End - In January, the trading volume of soybean meal increased significantly, with far - month basis contracts dominating. Downstream enterprises mainly built positions for contracts from May - July and August - September to avoid price risks and prepare raw material inventories for the second half of the year. Spot trading was average, with an increase but less than that of far - month contracts. The Spring Festival stocking was lackluster. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work by downstream enterprises may slightly boost spot trading. By January 30, the total monthly trading volume was 7.4655 million tons, a 10.23% increase from the previous month and a 141.01% year - on - year increase. Spot trading volume was 1.6767 million tons, and far - month basis trading volume was 5.7888 million tons. The monthly domestic major oil mill's soybean meal pick - up volume was 3.6946 million tons, a 13.32% month - on - month decrease but a 19.87% year - on - year increase. [18] Inventory - The significant increase in soybean meal trading volume in January led to a seasonal decrease in inventory. After the Spring Festival, the de - stocking speed may accelerate. As of January, the soybean meal inventory decreased to 947,000 tons, a 4.43% month - on - month increase, and the contract volume decreased to 4.4214 million tons, an 11.46% month - on - month decrease. As of January 31, the domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 11.33 days, a 19.8% increase from the end of last month and a 3.9% increase from the same period last year. [20]