Report Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is weak and volatile, with the demand for thread steel decreasing and the inventory accumulating, while the demand and production of hot-rolled steel are increasing slightly and the inventory is decreasing. The profit of steel mills is poor, the downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, and the iron water production is stable. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and the steel export remains high. The rebound of non-ferrous and precious metals has improved the commodity sentiment, but the weak demand restricts the rebound space of the market [1]. - The iron ore market is weak, with the global shipping volume increasing but lower than the same period last year, and the domestic arrival volume decreasing slightly. The port inventory has continued to accumulate significantly, and there is still some structural support in the short term. The terminal demand is in a low-level shock, the steel mill's profitability has declined, and the iron water production is stable at a low level. The steel mill's imported ore inventory has increased, and the replenishment demand continues to be released. The overall supply and demand of iron ore are expected to improve marginally, but the decline in the risk preference of the commodity market puts pressure on the market [2]. - The coke market is mainly in a shock state, with the coking profit being average and the daily output slightly decreasing. The coke inventory has increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders may improve after the first price increase. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, the downstream iron water is at the off-season level, the steel profit level is average, and the pressure on raw materials is still strong. The coke market is at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for the "anti-involution" policy. Driven by coking coal, the coke price is unlikely to decline significantly and is likely to fluctuate within a range [3]. - The coking coal market is mainly in a shock state, with the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume being 873 vehicles yesterday. The output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, the spot auction transactions have gradually declined, and the transaction price has mainly increased driven by the increase in the market price. The terminal inventory has increased significantly, and the total inventory of coking coal has increased significantly, with the production end inventory slightly decreasing. The winter storage demand is gradually coming to an end. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, the downstream iron water is at the off-season level, the steel profit level is average, and the pressure on raw materials is still strong. The coking coal market is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the "anti-involution" policy. The seasonal decline of Mongolian coal customs clearance data is still not obvious, but under the influence of the overall market sentiment, the coking coal price is unlikely to decline significantly and is likely to fluctuate within a range [5]. - The silicomanganese market has corrected, with the spot manganese ore transaction price slightly decreasing, the market entering the non-arbitrage space, and the downward space being relatively small. The market is waiting for the steel tender. The manganese ore port inventory may start to accumulate slowly, the mine end shipping has increased month-on-month, but the mine cost has increased compared with previous years, and the price reduction space may be relatively limited. The iron water production is at the seasonal low level, the weekly output of silicomanganese has increased slightly, and it is difficult to see a significant decline driver. The silicomanganese inventory has increased slightly, and the price is affected by the over-supply and the repeated fermentation of the "anti-involution" issue [6]. - The ferrosilicon market has corrected, with the tender price of a large steel mill in the north in February being 5,760 yuan/ton for acceptance and delivery, which is the same as last month. The power cost in some production areas has indeed decreased, the semi-coke price has decreased slightly, and the main production areas are still mainly in a loss state. The iron water production is at the off-season level, the export demand remains above 30,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant. The metal magnesium production has continued to increase month-on-month, the secondary demand has increased marginally, and the overall demand still has resilience. The ferrosilicon supply has not changed much, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the price is affected by the over-supply and the repeated fermentation of the "anti-involution" issue [7]. Summary by Category Steel - The thread steel market is in a weak shock state, with the off-season demand decreasing, the production stabilizing in the short term, and the inventory continuing to accumulate. The hot-rolled steel market has a slight increase in demand and production, and the inventory continues to decline, with the pressure gradually easing. The steel mill's profit is poor, the downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, the blast furnace复产 slows down, and the iron water production stabilizes. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and the steel export remains high. The rebound of non-ferrous and precious metals has improved the commodity sentiment, but the weak demand restricts the rebound space of the market, and there may still be fluctuations in the short term [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is weak, with the global shipping volume increasing but lower than the same period last year, and the domestic arrival volume decreasing slightly. The port inventory has continued to accumulate significantly, and there is still some structural support in the short term. The terminal demand is in a low-level shock, the steel mill's profitability has declined, and the iron water production is stable at a low level. The steel mill's imported ore inventory has increased, and the replenishment demand continues to be released. The overall supply and demand of iron ore are expected to improve marginally, but the decline in the risk preference of the commodity market puts pressure on the market [2]. Coke - The coke market is mainly in a shock state, with the coking profit being average and the daily output slightly decreasing. The coke inventory has increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders may improve after the first price increase. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, the downstream iron water is at the off-season level, the steel profit level is average, and the pressure on raw materials is still strong. The coke market is at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for the "anti-involution" policy. Driven by coking coal, the coke price is unlikely to decline significantly and is likely to fluctuate within a range [3]. Coking Coal - The coking coal market is mainly in a shock state, with the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume being 873 vehicles yesterday. The output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, the spot auction transactions have gradually declined, and the transaction price has mainly increased driven by the increase in the market price. The terminal inventory has increased significantly, and the total inventory of coking coal has increased significantly, with the production end inventory slightly decreasing. The winter storage demand is gradually coming to an end. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, the downstream iron water is at the off-season level, the steel profit level is average, and the pressure on raw materials is still strong. The coking coal market is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the "anti-involution" policy. The seasonal decline of Mongolian coal customs clearance data is still not obvious, but under the influence of the overall market sentiment, the coking coal price is unlikely to decline significantly and is likely to fluctuate within a range [5]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese market has corrected, with the spot manganese ore transaction price slightly decreasing, the market entering the non-arbitrage space, and the downward space being relatively small. The market is waiting for the steel tender. The manganese ore port inventory may start to accumulate slowly, the mine end shipping has increased month-on-month, but the mine cost has increased compared with previous years, and the price reduction space may be relatively limited. The iron water production is at the seasonal low level, the weekly output of silicomanganese has increased slightly, and it is difficult to see a significant decline driver. The silicomanganese inventory has increased slightly, and the price is affected by the over-supply and the repeated fermentation of the "anti-involution" issue [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon market has corrected, with the tender price of a large steel mill in the north in February being 5,760 yuan/ton for acceptance and delivery, which is the same as last month. The power cost in some production areas has indeed decreased, the semi-coke price has decreased slightly, and the main production areas are still mainly in a loss state. The iron water production is at the off-season level, the export demand remains above 30,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant. The metal magnesium production has continued to increase month-on-month, the secondary demand has increased marginally, and the overall demand still has resilience. The ferrosilicon supply has not changed much, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the price is affected by the over-supply and the repeated fermentation of the "anti-involution" issue [7].
黑色金属日报-20260203
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2026-02-03 13:05