政策注入消费动能，看好三方收单“铲子”公司

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the frequent consumer stimulus policies at the beginning of 2026 and the ongoing strategy to expand domestic demand are expected to boost consumer confidence and drive consumption demand expansion. Third-party payment companies are likely to benefit from the recovery of offline consumption, with recommended stocks including Newland and Newguo, and related stock Lakala [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Support - On January 29, 2026, the State Council issued a significant policy document aimed at optimizing and expanding service supply to enhance service consumption quality and benefits for the public. The document focuses on key areas such as transportation services, housekeeping services, online audio-visual services, tourism services, automotive aftermarket services, and inbound consumption, emphasizing the need for innovation in consumption scenarios and talent cultivation [5]. - The 2026 "National Subsidy" continues, with optimizations in the scope, standards, and implementation mechanisms of subsidies compared to 2025. The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds to support the replacement of old consumer goods has been allocated to local governments ahead of peak consumption seasons [5]. Economic Strategy - An article published in "Qiushi" magazine on December 16, 2025, emphasizes that expanding domestic demand is a strategic move essential for economic stability and security. It calls for a comprehensive internal demand system to be established, focusing on consumption demand supported by income, investment demand with reasonable returns, and financial demand constrained by principal and debt [5]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for recommended stocks is as follows: - Newland: Stock price 26.97 yuan, market cap 27.32 billion yuan, EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.00 yuan, 2025E is 1.26 yuan, and 2026E is 1.55 yuan, with PE ratios of 27, 21, and 17 respectively [6]. - Newguo: Stock price 26.76 yuan, market cap 15.18 billion yuan, EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.41 yuan, 2025E is 1.04 yuan, and 2026E is 1.32 yuan, with PE ratios of 65, 26, and 20 respectively [6].