Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [1] 2. Data Source and Selection - The closing price data are from the previous Friday, and the weekly changes are the changes in the closing prices of the previous Friday compared with those of the Friday before last. Data sources include wind and Guotou Futures [1][2] 3. Market Data 3.1 Commodities - Positive Growth: Silver closed at 27941.00 with a weekly increase of 11.92%; crude oil at 470.80 with a 6.54% increase; gold at 1161.42 with a 4.10% increase; palm oil at 9240.00 with a 3.70% increase; PVC at 5063.00 with a 2.89% increase; copper at 103680.00 with a 2.31% increase; aluminum at 24560.00 with a 1.11% increase; methanol at 2320.00 with a 0.96% increase; and soybean meal at 2767.00 with a 0.58% increase [2] - Negative Growth: Coking coal at 1155.50 with a - 0.13% change; iron ore at 791.50 with a - 0.44% change; rebar at 3128.00 with a - 0.45% change; glass at 1056.00 with a - 0.75% change; corn at 2271.00 with a - 1.26% change; ethylene glycol at 3913.00 with a - 2.10% change; live pigs at 11220.00 with a - 2.98% change; PTA at 5270.00 with a - 3.27% change; and polysilicon at 47140.00 with a - 7.06% change [2] 3.2 A - shares - Positive Growth: The SSE 50 closed at 3066.50 with a 1.13% increase; the CSI 300 at 4706.34 with a 0.08% increase; and the Hang Seng Index at 27387.11 with a 2.38% increase [2] - Negative Growth: The CSI 500 closed at 8370.52 with a - 2.56% change [2] 3.3 Overseas Stocks - Positive Growth: The FTSE 100 closed at 10223.54 with a 0.79% increase; the S&P 500 at 6939.03 with a 0.34% increase [2] - Negative Growth: The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 23461.82 with a - 0.17% change; the French CAC40 at 8126.53 with a - 0.20% change; and the Nikkei 225 at 53322.85 with a - 0.97% change [2] 3.4 Bonds - Chinese 2 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.39 with a - 0.86bp change; 10 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.82 with a - 1.81bp change; and 5 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.58 with a - 2.7bp change [2] 3.5 Foreign Exchange - The euro - US dollar exchange rate closed at 1.19 with a 0.19% increase; the US dollar central parity rate was 6.97 with a - 0.36% change; and the US dollar index was 97.12 with a - 0.40% change [2] 4. Commodity Views 4.1 Macro - financial Sector 4.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Strategy Views: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [3] - Bullish Logics: Abundant liquidity in Q1, central bank's structural interest - rate cuts, upward - revised corporate profit expectations, improving fundamentals, ongoing core drivers of the spring market, and capital flowing into low - valuation sectors [3] - Bearish Logics: Sharp decline in precious metals, nomination of Waller for Fed Chair increasing hawkish expectations, decline in January's manufacturing PMI, insufficient economic demand, and profit - taking in the capital market [3] 4.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy Views: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [3] - Bullish Logics: Central bank's large - scale reverse repurchase operations, increased capital flowing back to the bond market due to stock market uncertainties, good primary - market demand for bonds, and geopolitical risks increasing risk - aversion sentiment [3] - Bearish Logics: Uncertainties around the Spring Festival, supply pressure of government bonds in 2026, and the need to observe the impact of allocation forces on market demand and pricing [3] 4.2 Energy Sector 4.2.1 Crude Oil - Strategy Views: Among 8 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish Logics: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, impact of the US cold wave on production, OPEC+ suspending production increases until the end of Q1, and a weak US dollar trend [4] - Bearish Logics: Forecast of oversupply in 2026 by IEA and EIA, non - OPEC countries' continuous production expansion, potential over - production in Venezuela, high geopolitical premium in current prices, and weak terminal demand [4] 4.3 Agricultural Products Sector 4.3.1 Soybean Meal - Strategy Views: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish Logics: Concerns about drought in Argentina, strong short - term Brazilian basis, inventory reduction before the festival, and relatively strong spot prices [4] - Bearish Logics: Expected high soybean production in Brazil, high future arrivals, decline in US soybean prices, weak demand from the breeding industry, and a 70% year - on - year increase in domestic commercial inventory [4] 4.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector 4.4.1 Copper - Strategy Views: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish Logics: Potential US interest - rate cuts, supply disruptions in global copper mines, weakening copper concentrate processing fees, and long - term growth in copper consumption [5] - Bearish Logics: Concerns about Fed's tightening policies after Waller's nomination, weakening sentiment due to precious - metal decline, increasing global visible inventory, and profit - taking before the Spring Festival [5] 4.5 Chemical Sector 4.5.1 Soda Ash - Strategy Views: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish Logics: Macro - policies to counter deflation and involution, industry's willingness to stabilize prices, and pre - festival downstream procurement before the cancellation of export tax rebates on photovoltaic glass [5] - Bearish Logics: New production capacity increasing supply pressure, low - price and rigid - demand procurement by downstream, high enterprise inventory, and oversupply in the photovoltaic glass industry [5] 4.6 Precious Metals Sector 4.6.1 Gold - Strategy Views: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish Logics: Long - term trend of de - dollarization, repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and central banks' long - term gold - buying behavior [6] - Bearish Logics: Nomination of hawkish Waller for Fed Chair, increased margin requirements by exchanges, and profit - taking from previous speculative trading [6] 4.7 Black Sector 4.7.1 Coking Coal - Strategy Views: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish Logics: Geopolitical tensions increasing energy commodity premiums, downstream winter - storage replenishment, and expected supply contraction due to pre - festival mine closures [6] - Bearish Logics: Lack of fundamental support for price increases, low auction transaction rates, high Mongolian coal imports, and low steel - mill iron - water production [6]
2026/2/3：市场主流观点汇总-20260203
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2026-02-03 14:07