海外宏观策略：宏观预期差为投机情绪降温

Group 1: Macroeconomic Marginal Changes - The consumer confidence index for January dropped significantly by 9.7 points to 84.5, the lowest level since 2014, and well below market expectations of 91 [1][6]. - November trade data returned to normal patterns, with the overall trade deficit continuing to widen, and capital goods imports increased by 7.9%, led by computers and semiconductors, indicating sustained strong investment in AI-related sectors [1][6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for December rose by 0.5% month-on-month, exceeding the forecast of 0.2%, indicating that businesses are passing tariff costs downstream, with inflationary pressures persisting [1][6]. Group 2: Policy Rate Expectations - At the January FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% as expected, continuing a monthly balance sheet reduction of $40 billion [2][7]. - Powell's remarks indicated a more positive economic outlook, with a shift from moderate to more robust expansion, while the labor market remains relatively stable despite cooling [2][7]. Group 3: Warsh's Policy Stance and Potential Impact - Warsh, nominated as the next Fed Chair, is relatively hawkish, advocating for rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, viewing inflation as a choice and suggesting that AI-driven productivity gains can help curb inflation [3][8]. - His support for rate cuts without inflation concerns suggests room for further easing, but his push for balance sheet reduction may face constraints from short-term liquidity pressures and midterm election dynamics [3][8]. Group 4: Asset Implications - In the U.S. stock market, tech stocks led declines amid balance sheet reduction expectations, with significant divergence among major tech firms; Microsoft fell by 11% while Meta surged nearly 10% [4][9]. - The capital expenditures of leading companies increasingly rely on internal cash flow for financing, indicating a stronger economic pull compared to the internet bubble period [4][9]. - The steepening yield curve in U.S. Treasuries may present trading opportunities in long-term bonds, with short-to-medium term bond yields expected to decline [4][13]. - Gold prices experienced volatility due to retracting rate cut expectations, with significant market fluctuations potentially providing buying opportunities [4][16]. - The U.S. dollar may face a downward trend due to adjustments in national security strategy, with liquidity concerns contributing to short-term rebounds [5][20].