元瞻经纬总量月报（2026年1月）：慢牛深化，长路徐行-20260203

Group 1 - The A-share market is entering a slow bull cycle driven by a combination of unexpected policy measures and improved market ecology, with a strong start in 2026 reflected in rising indices and increased trading volume [2][11] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to support steady growth, with fiscal policies aimed at boosting investment and consumption, alongside a positive outlook for corporate earnings [2][12] - The policy framework emphasizes a coordinated approach among fiscal, monetary, and capital market policies to sustain market momentum and create structural opportunities, particularly in technology and low-volatility dividend sectors [12][13] Group 2 - In 2025, the overall economic performance showed resilience, with strong service consumption and export growth, despite challenges such as external trade tensions and domestic demand recovery [16][19] - The industrial production sector demonstrated stable growth, with the industrial value-added growth rate remaining positive, indicating a solid supply-side performance that is likely to continue into 2026 [16][19] - The export sector exhibited significant resilience, with a notable increase in exports to emerging markets, while traditional consumer goods showed weaker performance [3][19] Group 3 - Corporate profitability is expected to improve, as evidenced by a return to positive year-on-year growth in industrial profits in December 2025, marking an end to three consecutive years of decline [48][49] - A structural divergence in earnings among A-share companies is emerging, with approximately 40% of companies reporting positive earnings forecasts, indicating a shift in capital towards sectors with clearer performance indicators [51]