能源日报-20260203

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt are all rated with three stars (★★★), indicating a clearer long/short trend and currently a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical risk premium for crude oil has weakened, and prices are under pressure. Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil follow the crude oil market, with the high-sulfur > low-sulfur pattern likely to continue. Asphalt has a limited decline and its near-month futures contracts are supported by cost factors [3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The situation between the US and Iran has unexpectedly eased, and the geopolitical risk premium has weakened, causing the previous gains to be continuously reversed. The inventory pressure in the global crude oil market is significant in Q1. With the uncertainty of the US-Iran negotiations and the strengthening of the US dollar, oil prices are expected to fluctuate frequently [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has declined following the bearish sentiment in the crude oil market. High-sulfur fuel oil has a tight spot market due to factors such as reduced Russian exports and increased alternative procurement in China. Geopolitical risks still provide some support. In the medium term, the high-sulfur market will face supply pressure if the geopolitical risks do not escalate. Low-sulfur fuel oil has continuous supply pressure due to the postponed return of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery in Nigeria. The demand support has weakened. The fuel oil market will mainly follow the fluctuations of crude oil, and the high-sulfur > low-sulfur pattern may continue [4] Asphalt - Asphalt has corrected following the crude oil-related varieties, but the decline is relatively limited. The supply pressure is limited in the short term, and the consumption performance has improved year-on-year. The domestic refineries' search for substitutes for Venezuelan crude oil supports the near-month asphalt futures contracts from the cost side, and the asphalt crack spread is strong [5]