固定收益周报：转债关注正股业绩-20260203

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, there is a high certainty that the liability growth rate of the real - sector will rise in February, and the financial sector (funding situation) is okay. Overall, the macro - liquidity is improving, with a positive view on equities, and the value and growth styles are tending to balance. Convertible bonds still have the advantage of asymmetric gains and losses in a volatile environment, and the demand for convertible bonds, especially convertible bond ETFs, may remain rigid. The valuation of the convertible bond market is expected to stay at a high level [23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Last week, due to the confirmation of the new candidate for the Fed Chairman, market risk appetite declined, and various assets fluctuated. Convertible bond prices followed the decline of the underlying stocks, but the valuation of convertible bonds remained at a historical high, and supported by the valuation, convertible bonds performed better than the underlying stocks. The average daily trading volume of the entire convertible bond market was 77.3 billion yuan, with basically no change compared to the previous week. The 100 - yuan premium rate remained at 34%, and the implied volatility fluctuated around the historical extreme point of 45%. The trading sentiment of convertible bonds continued to cool down slightly, and the trading popularity of traditional speculative bonds returned to a historical low. The trends of each sector were consistent with the underlying stocks, and the valuations changed passively. High - price, large - cap, low - rated, and newly - listed bonds had relatively large adjustment ranges [11]. - In a high - valuation environment, most industries are dominated by equity - like convertible bonds and high - price - high - premium convertible bonds. Industries with high - price - high - premium convertible bonds accounting for over 50% include the automotive and computer industries, where the valuation of convertible bonds deviates significantly. Industries with equity - like convertible bonds accounting for over 50% include the military, non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, machinery, and chemical industries, where convertible bonds have high elasticity and strong offensiveness [11]. Funding Sentiment - Comparing the share fluctuations of various broad - based indices, bond - type, and major commodity (gold) ETFs, last week, the shares of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 1000 continued to decline significantly, the CSI 500 was newly added as a major reduction target, and the capital inflow trend of the CSI 2000 stopped. The share of gold ETFs continued to increase significantly, with a growth rate of 12%, the same as the previous week. Convertible bond ETFs have maintained a stable net inflow recently, with the fund shares increasing significantly for four consecutive weeks, and the shares continued to grow by 3.5% last week. The share of interest - rate bonds continued to shrink [21]. Investment Strategy - Short - term investment strategy: Be optimistic about equities, with value and growth styles tending to balance. The valuation of the convertible bond market is expected to stay high, but be aware of the call risk and the risk of double - kill of the underlying stocks and valuation during the earnings disclosure period [23]. - Bond - selection suggestions: Emphasize the performance support of the underlying stocks. Pay attention to Jintian Convertible Bond and Guoli Convertible Bond in the UHV sector; Liugong Convertible Bond 2 and Yunji Convertible Bond in the pro - cyclical and engineering overseas sectors; Lixun Convertible Bond in AI applications; Ruichuang Convertible Bond in the military industry. For newly - listed bonds, recommend paying attention to Weidao Convertible Bond, Yongxi Convertible Bond, Weice Convertible Bond, and Dinglong Convertible Bond in the field of domestic substitution of semiconductors; Ruike Convertible Bond in the field of AI server connectors; Jin 05 Convertible Bond (Jinpan Technology) in power grid equipment; Yingliu Convertible Bond for gas turbines; and Jin 25 Convertible Bond (Jinchangxin) [23].