能源化策略：地缘扰动油价延续?波动，烧碱价格趋弱关注上游减产?险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation continues to disrupt oil prices, with the geopolitical premium of crude oil fluctuating due to factors related to Russia and Iran. The market should focus on the progress of US - Iran negotiations and India's purchase of Russian oil [2][8]. - Most energy - chemical products have phased support at the expectation level. For example, the cost of asphalt is expected to increase during the reconstruction of heavy - quality raw materials, and pure benzene and styrene are supported by the expectation of inventory reduction during the spring maintenance period [3]. - The overall outlook for the energy - chemical sector is to treat it with a volatile mindset, with the movement of US - Iran relations supporting crude oil prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - View: Supply pressure remains, and geopolitics dominates the rhythm. The API crude oil inventory in the US decreased by 11.08 million barrels in the week ending January 30. Geopolitical tensions, such as the US shooting down an Iranian drone and the approach of Iranian armed vessels to a US - flagged oil tanker, have led to an increase in geopolitical concerns. The US reducing tariffs on India in exchange for India stopping the purchase of Russian oil poses a threat to Russian oil supply in the later period. The outlook is volatile [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - View: The asphalt futures price shows a weak - volatile trend. The asphalt futures price is affected by the weakening of crude oil and the expected increase in the supply of distal raw materials due to the partial lifting of US sanctions on Venezuela. The supply - demand situation of asphalt is weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is high. The current asphalt futures price is over - valued compared with other products. The outlook is volatile, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline [10]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: As the US - Iran negotiations progress, the fuel oil futures price shows a weak - volatile trend. Geopolitical cooling expectations have driven down the fuel oil futures price. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply from Venezuela will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. The situation in Iran also has an impact on fuel oil exports and power - generation demand. The outlook is volatile, and the long - term growth of Venezuelan oil production will put pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil [10]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weak - volatile trend of crude oil. It is affected by natural gas price fluctuations, and although it faces some negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by other fuels, its current valuation is low. The outlook is volatile, and it will follow the movement of crude oil [12]. 3.1.5 PX - View: The price stops falling and stabilizes, and the negotiation atmosphere warms up. PX will have a short - term volatile adjustment. After the sharp decline in international oil prices, the impact of the cost side weakens. The fundamentals of PX have limited changes, and factors such as short - covering and the approach of the maintenance season support PX. The outlook is that the short - term price will fluctuate under the guidance of sentiment [14]. 3.1.6 PTA - View: The price fluctuates at a low level, and attention should be paid to the commodity sentiment. After the sharp decline in upstream costs, the decline has slowed down. PTA mainly follows the movement of upstream costs. The spot basis has slightly recovered, and the polyester production reduction has increased, leading to an expected inventory accumulation in the near - term. The outlook is that it will maintain a volatile adjustment in the short term [14]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - View: Although the current situation is weak, there is still an expectation of improvement, and it shows a volatile and upward - biased trend. Recent market changes include a sharp decline in international oil prices, some replenishment demand from downstream before the Spring Festival, and the widening price difference between styrene and pure benzene. The high - inventory situation may limit the increase, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the spring maintenance period [14][16]. 3.1.8 Styrene - View: Seasonal inventory accumulation may start, but the profit is not easy to compress. The price of styrene shows a volatile and upward - biased trend. The price is affected by the stabilization of crude oil prices and the expected weakening of supply - demand. However, due to export support, the height of seasonal inventory accumulation is expected to be reduced, and the profit compression is limited. The outlook is that it will be volatile and upward - biased, with inventory reduction expected to resume in March [18]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - View: The near - term arrival volume is relatively large, and the price is under pressure. Due to the large near - term arrival volume, inventory has been accumulating. Although there is an expectation of a decrease in arrival volume from mid - February, and the polyester demand support is insufficient, the price is expected to remain weak in the short term. The outlook is that the price will maintain a range - bound adjustment [20][21]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - View: Downstream factories are on holiday and shut down, and the demand is weak. The short - fiber price follows the movement of upstream polyester raw materials. As the market approaches the Spring Festival, downstream demand is weak, and the short - fiber price maintains a weak - volatile trend. The outlook is that the price will follow the upstream, and the support for processing fees will increase [24][25]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - View: It follows the cost fluctuations. Upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate, and polyester bottle chips follow the upstream adjustment. The trading atmosphere has declined slightly, and the market is in a situation of having prices but no transactions. The outlook is that the absolute price will follow the raw materials, and the support for processing fees will increase [26]. 3.1.12 Methanol - View: Overseas disturbances have eased, and some Iranian devices have restarted. Methanol is stable with a downward - biased trend. The spot price in Taicang has increased slightly, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The easing of the US - Iran situation and the restart of Iranian devices have increased the expected import volume, putting downward pressure on the futures price. The outlook is that it will be volatile, and although the Iranian situation has eased, there is still uncertainty [28]. 3.1.13 Urea - View: New orders are difficult to follow up, and urea shows a volatile adjustment. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak before the Spring Festival. The market sentiment is not active, and the price is in a stalemate. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream purchasing performance and production enterprise order digestion [29]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - View: The upstream production has increased slightly, and the price has fallen back and then fluctuated. The decline in oil prices, the weakening of the overall commodity sentiment, the limited follow - up of spot prices after the profit repair of various production methods, and the weak demand in the off - season have led to the decline of the plastic price. However, there is still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term [32]. 3.1.15 PP - View: Some refinery maintenance has resumed, and PP has fallen back and then fluctuated. Similar to LLDPE, factors such as the decline in oil prices, the weakening of the commodity market sentiment, the profit repair of various production methods, and the weak demand in the off - season have led to the decline of the PP price. There is also an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term [33]. 3.1.16 PL - View: It follows the commodity sentiment and fluctuates. The PDH maintenance still provides some support. The supply increase is limited, and the downstream rigid demand has recovered. The short - term powder profit fluctuates slightly, and the demand support in the off - season is limited. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term [34]. 3.1.17 PVC - View: There are strong expectations but low valuations, and the pre - holiday rebound should be cautious. Geopolitical disturbances may affect the commodity market sentiment. The "rush for exports" of PVC supports the demand, and inventory has been reduced. However, the fundamental pressure has not been reversed, and the price may rise first and then fall, showing an overall volatile trend [35]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - View: The upstream losses have increased, and it is advisable to wait and see. Geopolitical disturbances may affect the market sentiment. The decline in the price of liquid chlorine has led to an increase in the losses of chlor - alkali enterprises. Attention should be paid to whether the upstream will reduce production to relieve the oversupply. The outlook is that it will be volatile, and the upstream production reduction risk has increased [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - Inter - period Spreads: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [39]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [40]. - Inter - Variety Spreads: Data on the inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific and complete content for each variety is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index, 20 - commodity index, and industrial product index on February 3, 2026, are 2374.28 (- 1.93%), 2707.14 (- 2.40%), and 2290.30 (- 0.97%) respectively [284]. - Energy Index: On February 3, 2026, the energy index was 1116.03, with a daily decline of 3.91%, a 5 - day decline of 4.36%, a 1 - month increase of 2.68%, and a year - to - date increase of 2.71% [286].