短期过热风险有所释放，铂钯显著反弹

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After a significant correction in the precious metals market, the short - term overheating risk has eased, and the prices of platinum and palladium have rebounded. As of the close on February 3, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 572.95 yuan/gram, with a gain of 3.54%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 450.55 yuan/gram, with a gain of 8.62% [1]. - For platinum, the short - term overheating risk has been alleviated, and it is expected to be oscillating upward. The long - term supply - demand structure and macro - logic remain unchanged, and there are low - buying opportunities. In the future, South Africa may face power supply and extreme weather risks in supply, while the demand in the automotive catalyst field is stable, and the hydrogen energy industry is a growth point [2]. - For palladium, due to the expected tariff and tight spot supply, it has significantly rebounded. In the medium - short term, it is supported by tight spot supply, US tariff - increasing expectations, and potential sanctions on Russian palladium. The Fed's interest - rate cut also has a positive impact [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Performance - As of February 3, 2026, the GFEX platinum main contract closed at 572.95 yuan/gram, up 3.54%; the GFEX palladium main contract closed at 450.55 yuan/gram, up 8.62% [1]. Platinum Analysis - Main logic: After the correction, the overheating risk has been released, and the long - term supply - demand and macro - logic remain unchanged. Although short - term price fluctuations may be large, the long - term view is bullish. - Supply: South Africa, the main supplier, may face power supply and extreme weather risks. - Demand: The automotive catalyst demand is stable, the hydrogen energy industry is a growth point, and jewelry and investment demand are expanding. The "interest - rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase price elasticity. - Outlook: Oscillating upward [2]. Palladium Analysis - Main logic: In the short term, the overheating risk has been released. In the medium - short term, it is supported by tight spot supply, US tariff - increasing expectations, and potential sanctions on Russian palladium. The Fed's interest - rate cut is positive. - Outlook: Oscillating upward [3]. Commodity Index - On February 3, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2374.28, down 1.93%; the commodity 20 index was 2707.14, down 2.40%; the industrial products index was 2290.30, down 0.97% [50]. Non - ferrous Metals Index - On February 3, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2678.30, with a daily decline of 1.15%, a 5 - day decline of 7.34%, a 1 - month decline of 5.65%, and a year - to - date decline of 0.29% [52].