贵属策略报：银价格幅反弹，警惕短线震荡险

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious metals prices rebounded significantly after two days of sharp declines, likely due to bargain - hunting after the sharp drop and the current key economic data vacuum, which boosted risk - aversion sentiment. Short - term, precious metals are likely to maintain high volatility, and caution is advised in operations [2]. - Gold has entered an adjustment phase after overheating in the short - term and is likely to show a wide - range oscillating trend. The medium - to - long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged. Silver will have wide - range oscillations in the short - term, and high volatility risks should be watched out for. The medium - to - long - term positive support for silver prices is still strong [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Overview - Precious metals prices rebounded after two days of sharp declines, driven by bargain - hunting and the data vacuum. The U.S. government shutdown led to the postponement of key economic data such as the January non - farm report. Short - term, the high - volatility pattern is likely to continue [2]. Gold Analysis - Short - term: Entered an adjustment phase after overheating, with a wide - range oscillating trend. The recent sharp rise was due to bargain - hunting after a sharp drop and the postponement of key data caused by the government shutdown. The release of better - than - expected PMI data, progress in U.S. - India tariff negotiations, and the easing of U.S. - Iran nuclear tensions may limit the increase. The adjustment of gold futures margin by exchanges will increase short - term volatility risks [3]. - Medium - to - long - term: The upward logic remains unchanged. Silver Analysis - Short - term: Wide - range oscillations, with high volatility risks. The rebound was due to bargain - hunting after a technical correction. The adjustment of silver futures margin by exchanges will increase short - term volatility. The decline in short - term silver tariff risks, the slowdown of U.S. silver hoarding, and the decrease in the London silver spot lease rate have weakened the positive drivers on the silver spot side. The short - term core drivers are similar to those of gold, and the volatility risk is significantly greater than that of gold [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Positive support is still strong. Commodity Index - On February 3, 2026, the comprehensive commodity index was 2374.28, down 1.93%; the commodity 20 index was 2707.14, down 2.40%; the industrial products index was 2290.30, down 0.97% [44]. - The precious metals index on February 3, 2026, was 4162.66, with a daily decline of 6.40%, a 5 - day decline of 19.26%, a 1 - month increase of 2.57%, and a year - to - date increase of 8.85% [46].