中国期货每日简报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 3, 2026, equity index futures rose, CGB futures were mixed, and most commodities declined with non - ferrous metals leading the rises [10][12][13] - Short - term copper prices are volatile due to macro disturbances but have a favorable medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook [16][21][22] - Tin prices have strong downside support in the medium - to - long - term but face short - term volatility risks [26][28][30] - Crude oil prices dropped, and the market is in supply - surplus, with the future trend depending on the U.S. - Iran negotiation progress [33][34][36] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - Equity index futures: IC rose 3.8% and IM rose 2.9% [10][12] - CGB futures: TF rose 0.08% and TL dropped 0.10% [10] - Commodity futures: Top gainers were Palladium (8.6% rise, 4.3% month - on - month open - interest decrease), Poly - Silicon (6.6% rise, 4.6% month - on - month open - interest decrease), and SCFIS(Europe) (5.2% rise, 1.3% month - on - month open - interest increase); top decliners were Silver (16.7% decline, 10.4% month - on - month open - interest decrease), Tin (6.7% decline, 7.5% month - on - month open - interest decrease), and Crude Oil (4.9% decline, 12.6% month - on - month open - interest decrease) [11][12][13] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Copper - On February 3, the front - month contract of copper rose 2.6% to 104,500 yuan/ton (SHFE) [16][21][23] - Macro: Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair led to a stronger dollar and copper price correction [17][21] - Supply - demand: Supply disruptions increased, long - term processing fees were at a low, squeezing smelters' profits; demand is currently weak but expected to be tight in the long run [18][19][20] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Tin - On February 3, the front - month contract of tin dropped 6.7% to 383,340 yuan/ton (SHFE) [26][29][31] - Supply: Issues in Wa State, Indonesia, and DRC affect supply; mineral - end supply tightens and smelter capital pressure increases [27][29][30] - Demand: Semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle sectors drive demand growth [27][30] - Risk: Short - term price volatility due to a strong dollar, stable supply, and weakened long - side momentum [28][30] 3.1.3.2 Crude Oil - On February 3, the front - month contract of crude oil dropped 4.9% to 449.4 yuan/barrel (INE) [33][36][38] - Geopolitical: Tensions between the U.S. and Iran eased, reducing the geopolitical premium [33][36] - Fundamentals: Global inventories rose, Kazakhstan's supply recovered, and refined - oil inventories faced pressure [34][36] - Outlook: Supply is in surplus; future prices depend on U.S. - Iran negotiation progress [35][36] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Shanghai launched the acquisition of second - hand housing for affordable rental housing in Pudong, Jing'an, and Xuhui Districts to meet talents' "job - housing balance" needs [41] 3.2.2 Industry News - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the Ag(T + D) contract's margin from 26% to 23% and the price fluctuation limit from 25% to 22% starting February 3, 2026 [42]