中泰期货晨会纪要-20260204

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Spring Festival market of A - shares may continue, with an upward - trending and volatile pattern. The sentiment in the bond market has improved, and the short - term rebound trend may continue. [9][10] - In the black market, steel and iron ore are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and iron ore should be shorted on rallies in the medium term. Double - coking prices may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. [13][15] - For non - ferrous metals and new materials, lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and opportunities to buy on dips can be considered. Polysilicon will run in a wide - range fluctuation, and cautious operation is recommended. [19][20] - In the agricultural products market, cotton is in a high - level consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended. Sugar is under supply pressure, and short - term trading in the low - level range is advised. Egg futures may show a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. Apples' high - quality supply may remain strong. Corn prices will be in a high - level oscillation before the Spring Festival. Red dates are expected to fluctuate weakly. Hog prices are difficult to rise significantly, and short positions are recommended for near - term contracts. [21][24][27][29][31][32][33] - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil can be shorted on rallies or sell call options. Fuel oil prices will follow the fluctuations of crude oil. Polyolefins may continue to correct. Rubber can sell out - of - the - money put options on dips. Synthetic rubber can be considered for long positions after the Spring Festival. Methanol may have a correction risk. Caustic soda futures are expected to be short - term bearish. Asphalt follows the fluctuations of oil prices. PVC may have a correction risk. The polyester industry chain is expected to continue to weaken. LPG prices are expected to turn from strong to weak and can be shorted on rallies. Pulp and logs are recommended to be on the sidelines. Urea futures should be treated with an oscillatory mindset. [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][45][46][47][48] Summary by Directory Macro Information - The first central No. 1 document of the "14th Five - Year Plan" was released, aiming at rural revitalization. [10] - There were rumors about the increase in VAT rates in the financial and Internet value - added service industries, but they were refuted. [10] - SpaceX merged with xAI, with a combined valuation of $1.25 trillion, and an IPO is expected later this year. [10] - The central bank will conduct an 800 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation and increase the net investment in Treasury bond trading in January. [10] - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the development of strategic emerging industries. [10] - 30 provinces have set their GDP growth targets for 2026, with many economic powerhouses aiming for over 5%. [10] - Cambrian refuted false information, and its stock price fell. [10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the development of future industries. [10] - Fujian Province introduced measures to stabilize the real estate market. [10] - The US and Iran will hold talks as planned. [10] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The Spring Festival market may continue, with an upward - trending and volatile pattern. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.29% to 4067.74 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.19%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.86%, and the Wind All - A Index rose 2.12%. The market turnover decreased to 2.57 trillion yuan. [9] Treasury Bond Futures - The sentiment in the bond market has improved, and the short - term rebound trend may continue. The central bank increased bond purchases, and the market sentiment is slightly optimistic. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield has a limited decline in odds. [10][11] Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Policy impact is low before the Two Sessions. Steel orders are acceptable, but there are issues such as inverted processing fees and high inventory, which suppress steel prices. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the market is loose. Steel and iron ore are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and iron ore should be shorted on rallies in the medium term. [13] Coking Coal and Coke - Double - coking prices may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Coal mine production is stable, and the first round of coke price increase has been implemented. In the medium term, domestic mine production is restricted, and the supply - demand contradiction may improve during the Spring Festival. [15] Ferroalloys - In the short term, pay attention to the settlement electricity fees in Inner Mongolia and the changes in manganese ore inventory at ports. Silicon iron has a long - term long - allocation idea, manganese silicon is recommended to be on the sidelines, and the spread between silicon iron and manganese silicon can be long - bought at low levels. [16] Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash supply is high, and new capacity is expected to increase. Glass has expectations of production line resumption. Currently, it is recommended to be on the sidelines. [17] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the market sentiment has cooled, but the price is supported by pre - holiday stocking. In the long term, demand expectations and supply disturbances drive the price upward. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and opportunities to buy on dips can be considered. [19] Polysilicon - It runs in a wide - range fluctuation. Policy expectations are uncertain, and manufacturers are trying to support prices. The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to continue to oscillate. [20] Cotton - It is in a high - level consolidation state. The supply is temporarily loose, and the downstream is affected by the holiday. The long - term price may rise due to the expected reduction in planting area. [21][23] Sugar - It is under supply pressure. The global sugar supply is in surplus, and domestic supply is increasing. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - level range. [24][25][26] Eggs - Before the Spring Festival, egg prices may weaken. The in - production inventory is still high, and the off - season after the Spring Festival is expected to be "not off - peak" with a low probability. The near - term futures contracts may be under pressure, and the futures contracts may show a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. [27][28] Apples - High - quality apples may continue to be strong, and the futures price may rise. The出库 situation is good, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term. [29][30] Corn - Pay attention to the port collection situation. Before the Spring Festival, the price will be in a high - level oscillation. After the Spring Festival, pay attention to the concentrated release of grain sales and the opportunity to buy on dips in the far - term contracts. [31] Red Dates - Pay close attention to the market performance during the consumption peak season. Currently, it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is large, and the consumption growth is limited. [32] Hogs - Supply and demand both increase, and the spot price is difficult to rise significantly. Short positions are recommended for near - term contracts. [33] Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The US passed a bill to avoid a government shutdown, and the API crude oil inventory increased, driving the oil price to recover. Geopolitical risks still exist, and the supply is in surplus. It can be shorted on rallies or sell call options. [35] Fuel Oil - Geopolitics and the macro - economy dominate the oil price. The supply - demand situation of fuel oil has improved marginally, and its price follows the fluctuations of crude oil. [36] Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure, and the market sentiment has turned bad. They may continue to correct, and attention should be paid to the correction risk. [37] Rubber - Pre - holiday downstream replenishment and the upcoming suspension of overseas production areas may support the price. The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips. [38] Synthetic Rubber - It has fallen due to negative feedback and the overall weakness of commodities. Consider long positions after the Spring Festival and pay attention to the narrowing spread with natural rubber. [39] Methanol - The real - time supply - demand situation has improved slightly, but there is still a risk of inventory accumulation. The price may have a correction risk if the geopolitical conflict eases. [40] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda production is at a high level, and the inventory is high. The futures price is expected to be short - term bearish. [41] Asphalt - It follows the fluctuations of oil prices and is stronger than oil. Pay attention to the changes in the discount of Venezuelan crude oil. [42] PVC - The previous rise was due to policy expectations and export growth, but the core supply - demand contradiction has not been improved. There is a risk of correction. [43][44] Polyester Industry Chain - The near - term fundamentals are weak, and the cost support is lacking. It is expected to continue to weaken, and positive spreads between May and September contracts of PX, PTA, or MEG can be considered. [45] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The focus of trading in February is the US - Iran issue. The cost support may weaken, and the demand is restricted. The price is expected to turn from strong to weak and can be shorted on rallies. [46] Pulp - The spot market is weak, but there is support from the supply side and pre - holiday replenishment. It is recommended to be on the sidelines and control positions. [47] Logs - The fundamentals are oscillatory, and the spot price is stable. It is recommended to be on the sidelines before the Spring Festival and observe the factory resumption after the Spring Festival. [47] Urea - The spot market is weak, and the futures market is emotional. It is recommended to treat it with an oscillatory mindset. [48]