宁证期货今日早评-20260204

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Fed has internal differences, and the market speculates on policy changes after Wash takes office. The US government shutdown crisis is resolved, which may increase risk appetite. Silver may fluctuate passively following gold and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. - In February, PTA may have no new maintenance plans, and the demand side is weak around the Spring Festival. PTA is expected to accumulate a large amount of inventory. The cost side is affected by the weak supply - demand of PX and high - volatility of crude oil. PTA is in a short - term transition [1]. - The national pig price is mainly declining, with oversupply. However, pre - festival stocking is expected to support the price, and there is an expectation of a small rebound in some areas. The short - term downward space of pig prices is limited [3]. - The increase in palm oil exports in January indicates a boost in demand, mainly due to the expansion of the international soybean - palm oil price difference. Palm oil prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term [3]. - During the traditional Spring Festival stocking period, the market stocking sentiment is weak, and the spot performance is weak. Due to sufficient supply, the soybean meal price is expected to decline in the short term [4]. - Manganese silicon continues to have a loose supply - demand situation, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [4]. - As domestic coal mines approach the holiday, production will gradually decline. The coking coal fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [5]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream terminal procurement decreases, and market activity declines. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a narrow range [5]. - The domestic copper smelting project is restricted, and the growth of refined copper production may slow down. The demand side is weak, and copper prices are expected to oscillate and repair in the short term [6]. - The decline in bauxite shipping and port congestion data indicates an adjustment in short - term demand. Aluminum prices are expected to enter an oscillation and consolidation stage [7]. - In January, the capital market was in a net injection pattern, which is beneficial to the bond market. However, due to macro - prudential control, the bond market is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. - Geopolitical factors and the expected reduction of India's Russian crude oil purchases have led to a rebound in crude oil futures. Before the new OPEC+ policy is introduced in March, the market is expected to fluctuate with geopolitical factors [9]. - Domestic rubber is in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production period to the off - season. The inventory has recovered to the medium level, and the demand is weak. Short - term trading is recommended [11]. - Geopolitical disturbances and policy uncertainties still exist, but there is no further deterioration. Gold has insufficient downward momentum and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [11]. - The domestic methanol market has high production and weak demand, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with high inventory and weak demand. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - The ethylene glycol market has weak supply - demand expectations, with low factory profits, continuous inventory accumulation, and a decline in downstream polyester开工率. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [14]. Group 3: Summaries by Product Silver - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The US government shutdown crisis is resolved, and silver may follow gold and oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. PTA - In January, the average monthly load of PTA was 77.2%, up 3.9% from December and down 2.3% from the same period last year. In February, there may be no new maintenance plans, and the demand is weak. PTA is expected to accumulate a large amount of inventory [1]. Pig - On February 3, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.56 yuan/kg, up 0.7% from the previous day. The national pig price is mainly declining, but pre - festival stocking is expected to support the price [3]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil exports in January increased by 14.89% compared with the previous month. India's palm oil imports in January increased by 51%. Palm oil prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term [3]. Soybean Meal - On February 3, the domestic soybean meal spot market prices were mixed. The market stocking sentiment is weak, and the supply is sufficient. The soybean meal price is expected to decline in the short term [4]. Manganese Silicon - The national 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprise sample has an operating rate of 36.21% and a daily output of 27,485 tons. Manganese silicon has a loose supply - demand situation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [4]. Coking Coal - The independent coking enterprise sample has a capacity utilization rate of 71.86%, a daily coke output of 628,400 tons, and a coking coal inventory of 1.23479 billion tons. Coking coal prices are expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [5]. Rebar - On February 3, the domestic steel market prices were in a narrow - range consolidation. As the Spring Festival approaches, steel prices are expected to oscillate in a narrow range [5]. Copper - The domestic copper smelting project is restricted, and the growth of refined copper production may slow down. The demand side is weak, and copper prices are expected to oscillate and repair in the short term [6]. Aluminum - As of January 30, the bauxite shipping volume from major countries to China decreased, and the port congestion volume also decreased. Aluminum prices are expected to enter an oscillation and consolidation stage [7]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - In January, the capital market was in a net injection pattern, which is beneficial to the bond market. However, due to macro - prudential control, the bond market is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors and the expected reduction of India's Russian crude oil purchases have led to a rebound in crude oil futures. Before the new OPEC+ policy is introduced in March, the market is expected to fluctuate with geopolitical factors [9]. Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 58.8 baht/kg, and the cup glue price is 53.5 baht/kg. As of February 1, the inventory in Qingdao increased. Rubber is in the off - season, and short - term trading is recommended [11]. Gold - Geopolitical disturbances and policy uncertainties still exist, but there is no further deterioration. Gold has insufficient downward momentum and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [11]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest decreased, and the port inventory increased. The domestic methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. Soda Ash - The national heavy - quality soda ash mainstream price is 1,227 yuan/ton, and the output and inventory increased. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol in East China decreased, the output increased slightly, and the port inventory increased. The supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to be weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [14].