格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260204

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The sharp decline in the precious metals market was triggered by US President Trump's nomination of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, but the main reason was the large number of profit - taking positions accumulated from previous continuous rallies, which led to a chain - reaction and market stampede. The selling in the precious metals market may not be sustainable due to geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, and factors such as the development of the Iranian situation, the continuous issuance of US Treasuries, the impact of AI investment on the US economy, and industrial demand for silver will help keep gold and silver prices at a high level above the historical average. [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 6.83% to $4970.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 10.27% to $84.92 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract rose 4.2% to 1108.8 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 5.93% to 22393 yuan per kilogram. [1] Important Information - As of February 3, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 3.72 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1083.38 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 108.89 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 16437.7 tons. [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 8.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 91.1%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by April is 22.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 76.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.5%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut by June is 46%. [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that as of the close of trading on February 4, 2026, the daily price limit range and trading margin ratio for silver futures contracts will be adjusted. The daily price limit range for listed silver futures contracts will be adjusted to 19%, the margin ratio for hedging positions will be adjusted to 20%, and the margin ratio for general positions will be adjusted to 21%. [1][2] - Trump signed a bill to end a partial government shutdown. [1] - US officials said that the US military shot down an Iranian drone approaching the USS Lincoln. The White House stated that although Iran has requested adjustments to the location and form of the talks, the talks between the US and Iran are still planned to be held this week, and the US still retains military options. It is reported that Iranian armed speedboats attempted to stop a US - flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz but failed. [1] Market Logic - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair was the trigger for the precious metals market crash. The large number of profit - taking positions from previous rallies and the resulting chain - reaction and market stampede were the main reasons. Futures margin trading and institutional hedging operations may have also contributed to the precious metals sell - off. [1][2] Trading Strategy - The short - term volatility of precious metals has increased, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks. [2]