原油：宏观、地缘情绪带动反弹，空单轻仓持有

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that crude oil prices rebounded driven by macro and geopolitical sentiments, and suggests holding short positions lightly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI March crude oil futures rose $1.07, or 1.72%, to $63.21 per barrel; ICE Brent crude futures contract 04 rose $1.03, or 1.55%, to $67.33 per barrel; SC2603 crude oil futures rose $8.00, or 1.78%, to $457.80 per barrel [1]. European Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra: Spread -$3.68, closed, spread change -$0.34, due to weakened price advantage of Middle - East crude oil and further deterioration of the arbitrage window [2]. - Arab Light: Spread -$5.01, closed, spread change -$0.38, due to continuous disadvantage in refining value and no improvement in price difference [2]. - Nemba: Spread -$5.69, closed, spread change -$0.19, due to high freight of West - African crude oil and no improvement in economy [2]. - Forties: Spread -$11.02, closed, spread change -$0.55, due to expanded price disadvantage of North - Sea crude oil and wider spread with WTI MEH [2]. - Arab Heavy: Spread -$3.41, closed, spread change +$0.75, with slight improvement possibly due to looser prices of Middle - East heavy oil [2]. - Vasconia: Spread -$0.95, closed, spread change +$0.19, with marginal improvement in arbitrage of Latin - American heavy oil but still in a loss state [2]. - Napo: Spread -$6.78, closed, spread change +$0.41, with possible narrowing of price decline but the arbitrage window still deeply in the red [2]. - Maya: Spread -$1.1, closed, spread change +$1.24, with significant improvement in refining value or price of Mexican heavy oil [2]. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties: Spread -$2.89, closed, spread change +$1.39, with narrowed price disadvantage of North - Sea crude oil and significant improvement in arbitrage but still negative [4]. - Arab Extra Light: Spread $1.29, open, spread change -$0.54, with narrowed arbitrage space of Middle - East light oil possibly due to rising freight [4]. - Saharan Blend: Spread $5.01, open, spread change +$2.19, with significantly expanded price advantage of Algerian crude oil and increased arbitrage space [4]. - Urals: Spread $24.54, open, spread change -$1.21, with a huge price discount of Russian oil and the arbitrage window remaining at an extremely high level [4]. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH: Spread $1.27, open, spread change +$0.87, with enhanced economy due to decreased trans - Atlantic freight or expanded US - Europe spread [4]. - Eagle Ford: Spread $1.56, open, spread change +$0.78, with improved arbitrage conditions for shale oil, consistent with the trend of WTI MEH [4]. - Azeri Light: Spread $3.36, open, spread change -$0.26, with stable and slightly narrowed arbitrage space for Azerbaijani light oil [4]. - Bonny Light: Spread $3.71, open, spread change -$0.01, with a stable arbitrage window for West - African light oil and little change [4]. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend: Spread -$22.47, closed, spread change +$0.1, with a stable dominant position of Russian oil and continuously closed arbitrage space for other oil types [5]. - Azeri Light: Spread -$20.89, closed, spread change -$0.28, with a slight deterioration in spread and unchanged dominance of Russian oil [5]. - Eagle Ford: Spread -$25.21, closed, spread change +$1.26, with marginal improvement in arbitrage conditions for US crude oil but still uncompetitive [6]. - Ekofisk Ford: Spread -$27.15, closed, spread change +$0.22, with slight improvement in North - Sea crude oil but unchanged absolute disadvantage [6]. Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri: Spread -$2.97, closed, spread change +$2.13, with significant narrowing of the arbitrage window due to improved price or freight of Indonesian heavy oil [6]. - Basrah Heavy: Spread -$1.08, closed, spread change -$0.21, with a slight deterioration in arbitrage conditions for Iraqi heavy oil [6]. - Napo: Spread $3.62, open, spread change +$1.85, with significantly expanded arbitrage space for Ecuadorian heavy oil possibly due to deeper discounts [6]. - Maya: Spread $0.01, open, spread change +$0.99, with the arbitrage window reopening for Mexican heavy oil [6]. - Mars: Spread -$0.21, closed, spread change +$0.44, with improved arbitrage for US medium - quality oil but still not profitable [6]. Key Market News - The US government is preparing to issue a general license to allow companies to extract oil in Venezuela, which is part of a plan to relax sanctions and revive the country's stagnant energy industry [7]. - Iran has entered the highest state of defense readiness [7]. - OPEC+ expects an increase in oil demand in spring and summer [7]. - Brazil's oil production in December reached 4.015 million barrels per day, a 17.4% year - on - year increase, and the production in 2025 reached a record of 3.77 million barrels per day, a 12.3% increase from the previous year [7]. - The daily oil production of Kazakhstan's giant Tengiz oilfield increased from 118,000 barrels on January 31 to 183,000 barrels on February 1, and the production of the Tengri oilfield is expected to reach 430,000 barrels per day on February 4 [7]. - Iran cancelled a planned live - fire military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz after receiving a warning from the US [7]. - Negotiations between the US and Iran are continuing, and Iran is willing to take action. If diplomatic efforts fail, Trump still retains the option of taking military action [9]. - Trump does not want to repeat the "Midnight Hammer" operation against Iran [11]. - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 30 was - 11.079 million barrels (previous value - 247,000 barrels, expected - 256,000 barrels); API Cushing crude oil inventory was - 1.394 million barrels (previous value - 92,000 barrels) [11]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of crude oil is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [10].