中诚信国际宏观资讯双周报-20260203

Economic Insights - Indonesia's stock market faced significant turmoil following MSCI's warning, leading to a two-day drop in the Jakarta Composite Index, marking its worst performance in nearly 30 years, with foreign capital outflows potentially exceeding $13 billion[9] - South Korea's January exports surged by 34% year-on-year to $65.85 billion, with semiconductor exports doubling to $20.5 billion, contributing to a trade surplus of $8.7 billion[14] - The IMF raised Egypt's growth forecast for FY 2025/2026 to 4.7%, up by 0.2 percentage points, indicating a positive outlook for economic recovery[21] Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Turkish central bank lowered its policy rate to 37%, signaling a cautious approach amid rising inflation pressures, with limited recovery expected in the banking sector's profitability[19] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's potential leadership change under Kevin Warsh has prompted a reevaluation of its role, causing immediate market reactions including declines in U.S. stock indices and increases in gold prices[13] Regional Developments - Saudi Arabia's economy is projected to grow from 2.6 trillion SAR in 2016 to 4.7 trillion SAR by 2024, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 8% driven by the "Vision 2030" initiative[18] - The GCC debt capital market is expected to exceed $1.25 trillion by 2026, growing at an annual rate of about 13.6%, primarily due to declining oil prices and increased diversification efforts[25] Inflation Trends - Zambia's inflation rate dropped to 9.4% in January, the first single-digit figure in three years, attributed to currency appreciation and rising copper export revenues[24] - Turkey's broad unemployment rate surged to 28.6%, affecting over 11.6 million people, highlighting discrepancies between official and actual unemployment figures[47]