国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The trends include narrow - range fluctuations, wide - range fluctuations, weak fluctuations, high - level fluctuations, and slight price increases [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - Price Trend: Expected to experience a game between expectations and reality, with narrow - range fluctuations in ore prices [2][4]. - Fundamentals: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 777.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan or 0.70% from the previous day. The positions decreased by 1,835 lots. Among spot prices, the prices of imported ores such as Carajás fines, PB fines, and others all declined, while the prices of domestic ores remained stable. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - Macro and Industry News: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value. Some real - estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real - estate companies still need to report financial indicators [4]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price Trend: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][7]. - Fundamentals: The closing prices of the RB2605 and HC2605 futures contracts decreased. The trading volume and positions of rebar increased, while those of hot - rolled coil decreased. Spot prices in various regions generally declined. The basis and spreads also changed [7]. - Macro and Industry News: In the week of January 29th, the output of rebar increased by 0.28 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.8 tons. The total inventory of rebar increased by 23.43 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.2 tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 9.12 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 1.45 tons. In December, the output of medium - thick plate rolling mills of key enterprises increased year - on - year, while the output of hot - continuous rolling mills and cold - continuous rolling mills decreased. In January 2026, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the average daily output of pig iron increased by 1.8% month - on - month, and the average daily output of steel increased by 3.0% month - on - month. The steel inventory of key enterprises increased. The social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly. BHP Billiton's first - half iron ore production reached a record high, and it accepted a partial price cut in iron ore contracts with China. An explosion occurred at Baotou Steel's plate plant. In December 2025, China's steel imports increased in volume and price. The government implemented export license management for some steel products [8][9][10]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price Trend: Ferrosilicon is expected to have weak fluctuations due to the loosening of cost expectations, and silicomanganese is expected to have weak fluctuations due to commodity sentiment resonance [2][11]. - Fundamentals: The closing prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures contracts showed different changes. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese and the price of manganese ore also changed. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads all showed certain trends [11]. - Macro and Industry News: The proportion of coal - fired power units' fixed - cost recovery through capacity prices will be increased to at least 50%. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. Hebei Iron and Steel Group finalized the February purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon. In January, the number of operating silicon - manganese furnaces in Inner Mongolia increased, and the output increased. The average operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises decreased, and the output decreased. As of January 30th, the manganese ore inventory increased [11][12][13][14]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - Price Trend: Both are expected to have high - level fluctuations [2][15]. - Fundamentals: The closing prices of the JM2605 and J2605 futures contracts increased. The trading volume and positions of coking coal increased, while those of coke decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes. The basis and spreads also changed [15]. - Macro and Industry News: On February 3rd, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed a decline in the price of Shanxi low - sulfur coking coal. The coking coal online auction on February 3rd had a 21% non - sale rate, and the average premium was 38.06 yuan/ton. The purchase sentiment improved, and the overall transaction showed an upward trend [15]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [18]. Thermal Coal - Price Trend: The supply and demand are in a weak balance, and the coal price is expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][19]. - Fundamentals: The prices of thermal coal in different regions and ports showed different changes, and the overseas prices also changed [19]. - Macro and Industry News: On February 3rd, the trading in the northern port market was sluggish, and the prices were basically stable. Market participants had different views on the post - holiday market. The coal price in the main production areas was weak. There was news that the RKAB approval of Indonesian coal had new progress, and if confirmed, it might support the price of low - calorie Indonesian coal. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on improving the power - generation - side capacity price mechanism [19][20]. Logs - Price Trend: Expected to have a slight price increase [2][21]. - Fundamentals: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts showed different changes. The prices of log spot markets in different regions were basically stable, with only a few showing slight increases [21]. - Macro and Industry News: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value. Some real - estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real - estate companies still need to report financial indicators [23]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [24].