大类资产总体反弹，能源化工小幅回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: Kevin Warsh's nomination as a candidate for the new Fed Chair is expected to have limited impact on the market. His policy stance of "supporting rate cuts but advocating balance - sheet reduction" may face difficulties in implementation. The US economy and the Fed's decision - making mechanism create resistance to significant policy shifts. Investors should also watch the US - Iran situation and the US government shutdown [9]. - Domestic macro: The domestic market continues to be driven by positive policy expectations. In the first quarter, there is a growing expectation that policies will be intensified to achieve an economic "good start" in the "15th Five - Year Plan". In January, both fiscal and monetary policies were front - loaded, and the manufacturing PMI showed economic stability. Strong exports also contribute to economic goals [9]. - Asset views: At the level of major asset classes, structural opportunities in portfolio allocation are emphasized. It is recommended to overweight IC and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). The domestic policy environment, loose liquidity, and inflation expectations support the equity market. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - term opportunities but limited odds. The precious metals sector is highly volatile, and short - term caution is advised. Non - ferrous metals are relatively strong and can be considered for right - side allocation after corrections. Black commodities are range - bound, and crude oil is highly uncertain, so it's better to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Asset Price Fluctuations 3.1.1 Index Futures and Treasury Bonds - Index futures: CSI 300 futures closed at 4653 with a daily increase of 1.25%, SSE 50 futures at 3033 with a daily increase of 0.8%, CSI 500 futures at 8282 with a daily increase of 3.71%, and CSI 1000 futures at 8183 with a daily increase of 2.97% on February 3, 2026 [2]. - Treasury bonds: 2 - year treasury bond futures were at 102.414 with a daily increase of 0.03%, 5 - year at 105.905 with a daily increase of 0.04%, 10 - year at 108.26 with a daily increase of 0.02%, and 30 - year at 111.96 with a daily decrease of 0.1% [2]. 3.1.2 Foreign Exchange and Interest Rates - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index was at 97.6129 with a daily increase of 0.51%, and the US dollar central parity rate was 6.9453, down 115 pips [2]. - Interest rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.4906%, down 10.2 bp; the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.82%, up 0.88 bp; the 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.29%, up 3 bp [2]. 3.1.3 Industry Indexes - On February 3, 2026, industries such as national defense and military industry, machinery, and media had relatively large daily increases, while the banking industry had a daily decline of 0.81% [3]. 3.1.4 Domestic Commodities - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil was at 453.19, fuel oil had a daily increase of 9.29%, etc. [4]. - Non - ferrous metals: Stainless steel had a daily increase of 3.4%, etc. [4]. - Black building materials: Rebar had a daily decrease of 0.29%, etc. [4]. - Agricultural products: Soybean had a daily increase of 0.1%, etc. [4]. 3.1.5 Overseas Commodities - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 62.33 with a daily decrease of 4.42%, ICE Brent crude was at 66.31 with a daily decrease of 4.34% on February 2, 2026 [6]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold was at 4680.9 with a daily decrease of 1.35%, COMEX silver was at 79.265 with a daily increase of 0.93% [6]. - Non - ferrous metals: LME copper was at 12900 with a daily decrease of 1.96%, etc. [6]. - Agricultural products: CBOT soybeans were at 1060 with a daily decrease of 0.4%, etc. [6]. 3.2 Sector Analysis and Short - Term Judgments 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to the easing of liquidity panic and the rotation to technology stocks [11]. - Stock index options are expected to be volatile as sentiment stabilizes and implied volatility declines [11]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile, with the long - end showing weakness [11]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold and silver are expected to be volatile as geopolitical tensions ease and the "Warsh trade" suppresses liquidity expectations [11]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - The container shipping route to Europe is expected to be volatile due to pressure on spot freight rates and pre - holiday price - cutting by shipping companies [11]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile due to factors like the off - season, weak market sentiment, and limited fundamental changes [11]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - Copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. are expected to rise in a volatile manner as market sentiment recovers, while lead is expected to decline in a volatile manner [11]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals Sector - Most varieties such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt are expected to be volatile due to factors like supply pressure, geopolitical influence, and weakening demand. Styrene is expected to rise in a volatile manner [13]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - Some varieties like natural rubber, cotton, and synthetic rubber are expected to be volatile or rise in a volatile manner, while others like corn/starch, sugar, and pork are expected to decline in a volatile manner [13].