朝闻国盛：关注美元流动性和情绪指标何时修复

Group 1: Market Overview - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the recovery of US dollar liquidity and sentiment indicators, as recent market conditions have shown excessive liquidity and heightened risk aversion due to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve [3] - Current US dollar liquidity is in a state of severe tightening, triggering a warning signal at -60%, indicating a significant reduction in net liquidity [3] - Fear sentiment indicators have worsened, amplifying market volatility, with rising uncertainty across global markets [3] Group 2: Fixed Income Insights - The fiscal outlook for 2026 remains challenging, necessitating larger fiscal expansions to ensure effective policy implementation, as 2025 saw insufficient internal growth in fiscal revenue [4] - Despite a budget deficit rate of 4% and an increase in government debt by 2.9 trillion yuan, actual spending fell short of initial budget expectations, indicating structural pressures on fiscal spending [4] - The report suggests that stronger fiscal measures will be required in 2026 to achieve effective expansion, with projections for special government bonds and a decrease in overall fiscal space [4] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - Haon Electric (301488.SZ) is positioned as a leader in intelligent driving perception, with a strategic partnership with NVIDIA to develop robotic brain technology, enhancing its competitive edge in the robotics sector [7] - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projections of 0.99 billion yuan in 2025, 1.31 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.76 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a robust expansion in its business model [8] - Cambricon Technologies (688256.SH) anticipates a substantial revenue increase in 2025, projecting revenues between 6 billion to 7 billion yuan, with a net profit turnaround expected to be between 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion yuan [10]