五矿期货：有色金属日报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive sentiment, a tight copper - mine supply, and high growth in domestic refined copper supply [3][4]. - Aluminum prices are expected to gradually stabilize and rise as LME aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, despite weak downstream demand [5][6]. - The lead industry's current situation is weak with rising inventories, but the higher - than - expected US ISM manufacturing PMI has alleviated some panic [8][9]. - Zinc prices are currently following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase. After the market sentiment stabilizes, the trading focus may return to the industrial logic [10][11][12]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend but will mainly operate in a wide - range shock in the short term due to the marginal relaxation of supply and demand and rising inventory [13][14]. - Nickel prices are expected to mainly operate in a wide - range shock in the short term as they face fundamental pressure and increasing domestic nickel inventory [16][17][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strongly supported by off - season de - stocking, but due to large market fluctuations, it is recommended to be cautious and observe or take a light - position attempt [20][21]. - Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short term as the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change, and there are multiple dilemmas for continuous rebound [23][24]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to rise as the cost support is strong and the supply is shrinking [26][27]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be supported in the short term due to supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [29][30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - The price of LME copper 3M rose 3.95% to $13,410/ton, and the main contract of SHFE copper closed at 105,180 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1,450 to 176,125 tons, with the increase from Asian warehouses. The proportion of cancelled warrants decreased, and the Cash/3M discount narrowed. SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 159,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong regions was at a discount to the futures, and the spot import was at a loss of about 500 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference widened to 3,280 yuan/ton [3]. Strategy Viewpoint - With the US planning to promote the commercial reserve of critical minerals and China strengthening the copper reserve expectation, along with better - than - expected manufacturing PMIs in the US and the Eurozone, the sentiment is positive. Although the new Fed Chairman's monetary policy is moderately hawkish, long - term prospects are not pessimistic. The copper - mine supply remains tight, and the domestic refined copper supply maintains high growth. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference range of the main SHFE copper contract is 102,000 - 108,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M is 13,000 - 13,800 dollars/ton [4]. Aluminum Market Information - The price of LME aluminum rose 1.39% to $3,099/ton, and the main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 23,865 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted SHFE aluminum contract increased by 0.9 to 676,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased slightly to 151,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, the aluminum rod processing fee fluctuated up, and the spot trading was dull. The spot in the East China region was at a discount of 220 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 495,000 tons [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate and downstream demand is weak in the off - season, it does not constitute a major negative for prices. With the LME aluminum inventory at a relatively low level and the US aluminum spot premium remaining high, aluminum prices are strongly supported. In the context of eased market sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to gradually stabilize and rise. The reference range of the main SHFE aluminum contract is 23,500 - 24,200 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 3M is 3,050 - 3,130 dollars/ton [6]. Lead Market Information - The SHFE lead index fell 0.26% to 16,670 yuan/ton on Tuesday, with a total unilateral trading position of 105,900 lots. The LME lead 3S rose by 13.5 to $1,973/ton, with a total position of 170,900 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingot and recycled refined lead was 16,450 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was at par. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 33,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 204,100 tons [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, high - price silver supports smelting profits, and the TC remains at a low level. The operating rate of primary lead smelters remains relatively high, and primary lead ingots are accumulating. The inventory of recycled waste materials has increased, the profit of recycled smelting has slightly decreased, but the operating rate of recycled lead has increased marginally. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises has slightly decreased. Both smelter finished - product inventory and social inventory have increased, indicating a weak industrial situation. The US ISM manufacturing PMI on February 2nd was higher than expected, which alleviated some panic [9]. Zinc Market Information - The SHFE zinc index rose 1.91% to 24,993 yuan/ton on Tuesday, with a total unilateral trading position of 203,800 lots. The LME zinc 3S rose by 79.5 to $3,348/ton, with a total position of 235,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingot was 25,050 yuan/ton, and the basis in different regions varied. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,900 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 109,100 tons [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the industrial aspect, the inventory of zinc ore raw materials has increased, and the decline of zinc ore prices has slowed down. The accumulation of LME zinc ingot inventory has slowed down, the 3 - 15 month spread of LME zinc has increased, and the SHFE - LME ratio has declined again. The rise in overseas natural gas prices has raised concerns about the cost of European smelters. The new government in Bolivia has halted a zinc - mine development project. Currently, the zinc - copper ratio and zinc - aluminum ratio are at absolute lows. Zinc prices are still in the process of making up for the macro - attribute increase following the sector. After the market sentiment stabilizes, the trading focus may return to the industrial logic [11][12]. Tin Market Information - On February 3rd, the tin price rebounded after reaching the bottom. The main SHFE tin contract closed at 383,340 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from the previous day. The SHFE inventory decreased by 209 to 7,788 tons. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained stable at a high level, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The downstream demand was still weak as the overall price was at a high level, and the terminal industry faced cost pressure [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the short term, the price of precious metals has stabilized and rebounded, and the tin price has also recovered. In the long term, the tin price will maintain an upward trend, but in the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a wide - range shock due to the marginal relaxation of supply and demand and the recent rise in inventory. It is recommended to observe. The reference range of the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is 47,000 - 51,000 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel Market Information - On February 3rd, the nickel price stabilized and rebounded. The main SHFE nickel contract closed at 134,830 yuan/ton, up 4.0% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable, and the cost of nickel ore was stable, while the price of nickel iron fluctuated up [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although the price of precious metals has stabilized and the prices of the non - ferrous metal sector have generally recovered, the nickel price still faces fundamental pressure in the short term, and the upward space is expected to be limited. Due to the high premium of refined nickel over nickel iron and the conversion of nickel iron to high - grade nickel matte, the output of refined nickel in January is expected to increase significantly. The domestic nickel inventory has increased significantly for three consecutive weeks, which significantly drags down the nickel price. It is expected that the nickel price will mainly operate in a wide - range shock. The reference range of the SHFE nickel price is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 18,000 dollars/ton [17][18]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 146,173 yuan in the evening session, up 3.55% from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 5,050 yuan (+3.57%), and the industrial - grade increased by 3.46%. The LC2605 contract closed at 148,100 yuan, up 11.82% from the previous day [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - On Tuesday, the pessimistic sentiment in the commodity market eased, and the market rebounded significantly. The expectation of fundamental improvement in lithium carbonate remains unchanged. Affected by the Spring Festival in February, the production of the cathode segment is expected to decrease by only about 10% month - on - month. After the short - term price risk is released, with the low inventory of downstream enterprises, the bargaining power for pre - festival raw material procurement is low. The off - season de - stocking is expected to strongly support the lithium price. Due to large market fluctuations, it is recommended to be cautious and observe or take a light - position attempt. The reference range of the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 137,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina Market Information - On February 3rd, 2026, the alumina index rose 1.31% to 2,808 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 531,600 lots, down 27,000 lots from the previous day. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 254 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $304/ton, and the import loss was 78 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.72 to 189,400 tons. The CIF price in Guinea remained at $61/ton, and that in Australia decreased by 2 to $58/ton [23]. Strategy Viewpoint - Workers at a mine in Guinea's Boké region have launched an indefinite strike. Currently, production and shipping are normal, and the impact needs to be observed. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The market's expectation of supply - contraction policies has increased, but there are still three dilemmas for continuous rebound. It is recommended to observe in the short term. The reference range of the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 2,950 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to domestic supply - contraction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The main stainless - steel contract closed at 13,585 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 1.23% (+165). The unilateral position was 240,600 lots, down 11,405 lots from the previous day. The spot prices in different markets varied, and the raw material prices were mostly stable. The futures inventory increased by 4,641 to 43,579 tons, and the social inventory increased to 904,500 tons, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 2.86% [26]. Strategy Viewpoint - Last week, market fluctuations increased significantly. The sharp decline in precious - metal prices on Friday dragged down the non - ferrous metal sector, impacting market sentiment. As the Spring Festival approaches, the purchasing enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches is low, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. The supply side has significantly contracted. The cost support of the industrial chain is still strong, and the price has strong support below. The bullish view remains unchanged, and the reference range of the main contract is 13,000 - 14,000 yuan/ton [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The price of cast aluminum alloy stabilized and rebounded. The main AD2603 contract closed at 22,215 yuan/ton, up 1.72%. The weighted contract position increased to 23,900 lots, the trading volume was 23,000 lots, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.08 to 66,900 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 and AD2603 contracts widened. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 decreased, and the price of imported ADC12 decreased by 300 yuan/ton. The domestic three - place inventory increased by 0.01 to 41,400 tons [29]. Strategy Viewpoint - The cost of cast aluminum alloy has stabilized. Although the demand is relatively average, the price is supported in the short term due to continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [30].