宝城期货动力煤早报（2026年2月4日）-20260204

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term demand for thermal coal is strong, the inventory at northern ports is continuously decreasing, and downstream terminal enterprises still have restocking needs, which support the coal price to rebound slightly. However, the medium - and long - term fundamentals of thermal coal still face pressure. It is expected that the coal price will run in a narrow range at a low level before the Spring Festival, and may maintain a slightly stronger trend in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1] 3.2 Calculation of Price Fluctuation - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The daily - trading closing price is the end price to calculate the price change. A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline between 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly, an increase between 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly, and an increase of more than 1% is strong. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views, and there is no distinction for short - term and medium - term views [2][3] 3.3 Price and Market Logic of Thermal Coal - The intraday and medium - term view of thermal coal is oscillating. The core logic is that during the critical period of peak winter power consumption, residential electricity consumption has improved significantly, and with two weeks to go before the Spring Festival, industrial electricity consumption has not declined. In the short term, the daily coal consumption of power plants has reached the peak of the year, and the restocking demand of downstream power plants and other terminal enterprises still exists, supporting the coal price to stabilize and rebound slightly. However, in the context of the peak season in January, the price of 5500K coal at ports only rose slightly by 11 yuan/ton, which also reflects the current weakness of the coal fundamentals and the market's bearish expectation of the subsequent coal supply - demand pattern [4]