宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026年2月4日）-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line, with the steel price oscillating at a low level due to the weak and stable industrial pattern [2] - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken, with increased supply pressure and weakening demand. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season but is supported by costs, and it is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, with attention to inventory changes [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are "volatile", "volatile", and "weakly volatile" respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is the weak and stable industrial pattern and low - level oscillation of steel prices [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken. The inventory increase has widened, production has risen to a relatively high level, and supply pressure has increased. However, short - process steel mills are expected to cut production as the Spring Festival approaches [3] - Rebar demand is declining weakly, with high - frequency demand indicators decreasing month - on - month and at a low level in the same lunar period in recent years. The demand pattern remains weak and continues to drag down steel prices [3] - The fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and the steel price is under pressure in the off - season. The positive factor is cost support, and the trend is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, with attention to inventory changes [3]