早间评论-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The yield of treasury bonds is at a relatively low level, and the stock index is expected to gradually move up. The precious metals market may have significant fluctuations. The prices of steel products, iron ore, and other commodities have different trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each commodity [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.10% at 111.960 yuan, the 10 - year main contract up 0.02% at 108.260 yuan, the 5 - year main contract up 0.06% at 105.905 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract up 0.03% at 102.414 yuan. The central bank conducted 105.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and the net withdrawal was 296.5 billion yuan. It is expected that treasury bond futures still face certain pressure, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contract of CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) rose 1.28%, the main contract of SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) rose 0.91%, the main contract of CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) rose 3.82%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) rose 2.87%. In January 2026, 4.9158 million new A - share accounts were opened, with a month - on - month increase of 89% and a year - on - year increase of 213%. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [8][9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 1,093.78, with a gain of 8.45%; the closing price of the silver main contract was 21,446, with a gain of - 13.64%. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is expected that market volatility will significantly increase, and long positions can be liquidated and wait and see [11]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to correct. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is in a year - on - year decline, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply pressure increases, and the inventory is higher than that of the same period last year. It is expected that the rebar price may continue the weak shock. The hot - rolled coil may have a similar trend. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [13]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The national hot metal daily output is below 2.3 million tons, and the demand for iron ore is at a low level. The import volume of iron ore increased by 1.8% year - on - year in 2025, and the domestic raw ore output is lower than that of the same period in 2024. The port inventory is rising, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. It is expected that the iron ore futures may continue the shock pattern in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly. The production of domestic coking coal is stable, but the supply will decrease during the Spring Festival. The demand from downstream coking enterprises is weak. It is expected that the coking coal and coke futures may continue the shock pattern in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels and manage positions carefully [17][18]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.51% to 5,836 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 0.71% to 5,620 yuan/ton. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level, and the demand is weak. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [20]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened lower and fluctuated slightly, breaking below the 10 - day moving average. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US increased. OPEC+ may maintain the decision to suspend production increase in March. It is expected that after a correction, crude oil is expected to regain strength. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the main contract [21][22]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil opened lower and fluctuated, closing near the 10 - day moving average. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is limited, and the inventory has decreased. The cost - end crude oil correction has led to a correction in fuel oil prices. After the correction, there is still room for fuel oil prices to rise. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the main contract [24][25]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou saw some price drops, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao fell. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefin products weakens, and the industry's operating rate may continue to decline. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long [27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 0.96%. The price of raw materials has increased, the supply has slightly shrunk, the demand has improved year - on - year, and the inventory has increased. It is expected to show a strong shock [29][30]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber rose 0.25%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract rose 0.54%. The global supply of natural rubber is seasonally shrinking, the demand from tire enterprises is mixed, and the inventory has slightly decreased. It is expected to show a strong operation in the short term [32]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 0.30%. The price is supported by export orders and cost, but the contradiction between high inventory and weak demand remains. The industry's operating rate is stable, and the demand is weak. It is expected to show a strong shock [34][35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell 1.06%. The short - term urea price will maintain a strong shock, mainly driven by export demand and cost support. The industry's operating rate has increased, the demand is good, and the profit has increased. The inventory is higher than expected [38]. PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract fell significantly by 1.37%. The PXN spread and short - process profit have been slightly compressed, the PX operating rate has slightly increased, and the cost support has weakened. It is expected to be mainly in a shock adjustment, and investors should participate cautiously [40][41]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell 1.08%. The PTA processing fee has risen to the average level of previous years, the supply has changed little, the demand has decreased seasonally, and the cost support has slightly weakened. It is expected to be in a shock operation, and investors should operate cautiously [42]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 1.98%. The domestic operating rate has increased, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, the cost has weakened, and the downstream polyester has entered the seasonal maintenance period. It is expected to maintain a shock bottom - building pattern, and investors should operate cautiously [43][44]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract fell 1.31%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of short - fiber has shrunk, and the terminal factories are mainly digesting raw material inventories. It is expected to follow the cost - end logic, and investors should wait and see cautiously [45]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2603 main contract fell 1%. The bottle - chip processing fee has risen to around 560 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to shrink, the export growth rate has increased, and it is expected to follow the cost - end operation. Investors should participate cautiously before the Spring Festival [46][47]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1,201 yuan/ton, down 1.15%. The fundamentals are still loose, the production has increased, the inventory has slightly increased, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be in a light and stable arrangement before the Spring Festival, and investors should be cautious [48]. Glass - On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1,072 yuan/ton, up 0.28%. The fundamentals are still in a loose pattern, the inventory in the factory has improved slightly, and the inventory of traders has increased. It is expected to be in a shock before the Spring Festival [50][52]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the main 2603 contract closed at 1,969 yuan/ton, down 2.19%. The supply is at a high level, the inventory is increasing, the price is weak, and the demand is weak. It is expected to maintain a high - supply pattern [53]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5,276 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream demand is limited, and some holders are selling at a discount to raise funds. It is expected that the pre - festival market will have limited fluctuations [54]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 4.63% to 148,100 yuan/ton. The market sentiment has improved. The supply is at a high level, the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, and the inventory has decreased. The price has strong support below, but the short - term volatility may increase [55]. Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 105,180 yuan/ton, down 3.49%. Geopolitical events have stimulated the hedging demand, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut remains unchanged. The mine supply is disturbed, the consumption has entered the off - season, and the inventory has increased. The copper price is expected to be adjusted before the Spring Festival [57]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,865 yuan/ton, up 1.47%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,806 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The alumina supply is loose, the electrolytic aluminum production growth space is limited, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The aluminum price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [59][60]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,805 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. The supply has tightened, the demand is weak, and the inventory has not started to accumulate significantly. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the zinc price is expected to enter an adjustment period [62]. Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,615 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The supply and demand are both weak, and the lead price is expected to maintain a range - bound shock [64][65]. Tin - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 6.64% to 398,100 yuan/ton. The mine supply is tight, the demand has certain resilience, the inventory has decreased, and the tin price has support below. However, the short - term volatility may increase [66]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 2.34% to 135,770 yuan/ton. The US plans to start a strategic mineral reserve project, and the nickel production cost is expected to rise. The nickel mine price is stable, the downstream demand is weak, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern. Investors should pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia [67]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 1.05% to 2,727 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 1.08% to 8,086 yuan/ton. The US bio - fuel tax credit policy has an impact on the market. The domestic soybean import has slowed down, the oil - mill profit has improved, and the cost support has decreased. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. Investors can pay attention to the long - position opportunity in the low - cost support range for soybean meal and wait and see after the soybean oil price leaves the low - cost range [68][69]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil continued to decline after the weekend holiday, but the strong export data limited the decline. Indonesia plans to restrict the export of palm - oil waste. The domestic palm - oil import has decreased, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Investors can consider the opportunity of going long after the correction [70][71]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed has risen slightly. The US bio - fuel tax credit policy has an impact on the market. China has adjusted the tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The rapeseed meal inventory has decreased, and the rapeseed oil inventory has increased. Investors should wait and see for the time being [73]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, the domestic Zhengzhou cotton rebounded with a reduction in positions. The external - internal price difference is large, and the short - term upward space of the domestic market may be limited. The USDA supply - demand report is favorable to the market. The domestic cotton production is high, but the inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and the future supply is expected to be tight. The downstream consumption is resilient. It is expected that the cotton price will be strong in the medium and long term, but the domestic market has pressure in the short term. Investors can buy in batches at low prices after a full correction [75][76]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, the Zhengzhou sugar contract fell with an increase in positions. The Indian sugar production is expected to increase, and the Brazilian new - season sugar is also expected to be in a good harvest. The domestic sugar supply is sufficient, and the import volume is high. It is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term [78]. Apples - On the previous trading day, the domestic apple futures fluctuated. The market is at the end of the Spring Festival stocking period, and it is expected to enter a small - range shock. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. It is expected that the price will be strong in the medium and long term. Investors can go long in batches after a correction [80][81]. Pigs - On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 0.98% to 11,160 yuan/ton. The market supply is abundant, and the pig price has fallen. The supply may still face great pressure in the first quarter, and investors should wait and see [83][84]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 0.74% to 2,953 yuan/500kg. The egg supply is expected to remain at a high level in February, and the far - month supply improvement prospect is worrying. Investors should wait and see for the time being [85]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn main contract rose 0.09% to 2,267 yuan/ton, and the corn - starch main contract fell 0.20% to 2,509 yuan/ton. The US bio - fuel tax credit policy has an impact on the market. The domestic corn is basically in balance between production and demand, and the corn - starch demand has improved slightly. The corn - starch may follow the corn market [86][87]. Logs - On the previous trading day, the main 2603 contract closed at 801.0 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. The supply has slightly shrunk, the downstream procurement has improved, the inventory has decreased, and the cost has slightly increased. The short - term market is strong, but the fundamental improvement needs time. Investors should pay attention to the external - market quotation, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [88][89].