PVC：基本面未有明显改善

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral rating [3] Core View - In 2026, the supply-side production cut during the peak maintenance season may exceed expectations, which is beneficial for the profit repair of the chlor-alkali industry. Before the Spring Festival, the optimistic expectation is hard to be falsified, and the market continues to push up the valuation. However, if manufacturers do not cut production later, the market will still trade the delivery pressure and the excessively high forward premium [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 05 contract futures price of PVC is 5071, the East China spot price is 4800, the basis is -271, and the 5 - 9 month spread is -112 [1] Spot News - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the stocking demand in the domestic PVC spot market remains sluggish. The supply in the spot market is gradually increasing, and the pre - holiday inventory accumulation in the industry continues. Although the market has a unilateral increase under the influence of the upward push of the bulk chemical sector, it is difficult for the transaction center of the spot market to follow the increase [1] Market Condition Analysis - In the short term, PVC is supported by factors such as export rush, the Mercury - Free Convention, and future production cut expectations. Fundamentally, the high - production and high - inventory structure of the PVC market is difficult to change. Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, with basically no new maintenance. The futures contracts before the 03 contract still face the situation of high operation and weak demand. The expectation of significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and the contango structure will also limit the market's space to trade low - valuation factors. At the same time, the rapid repair of the disk profit is not conducive to future production cuts and maintenance in the chlor - alkali industry. In addition, PVC warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the future pressure on long - position holders to take delivery is still relatively large [1]