Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]. 2. Report's Core View - The current situation of caustic soda is weak, but the future expectation is strong. Although the current high - inventory and weak - demand situation is difficult to reverse in the short term, the previous short - selling logic of caustic soda profit will be challenged later, and the far - month contracts may face cost increases and large - scale production cuts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - On February 4, 2026, the 03 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 1969. The cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 600, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 1875, and the basis was - 94 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - On February 3, taking the Shandong region as a benchmark, the price center of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong declined by 10 - 20, while the price of 50% liquid caustic soda increased moderately by 10 in some areas [2]. 3.3 Market Situation Analysis - The previous core logic of short - selling caustic soda profit was the strong performance of liquid chlorine and the decline in caustic soda cost, and manufacturers did not cut production as long as they were not at the cash - flow cost, resulting in a pattern of high production and high inventory. However, this logic will be challenged after April when the short - term strong pattern of liquid chlorine may not last [2]. - From the fundamental perspective, the high inventory of caustic soda makes the weak spot market difficult to reverse before the Spring Festival. In terms of demand, the oversupply of alumina has not changed in the short term, and the expectation of production cuts suppresses the stockpiling of caustic soda. Although there will be incremental demand from large - scale capacity expansion later, non - aluminum downstream industries face a seasonal decline in rigid demand and export pressure, so overall demand lacks support. On the supply side, winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and manufacturers are unlikely to significantly reduce production until they incur losses at the cash - flow cost [2]. - Recently, the futures market is insensitive to spot price cuts, and the price cut of liquid chlorine will lead to a pattern of cost increases and large - scale production cuts in the far - month contracts [2].
烧碱：弱现实，强预期
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-02-04 01:51