商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260204

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is releasing risks, and silver is falling from a high level. Copper prices are strengthening due to raw material disturbances. Zinc is operating weakly. Lead prices are under pressure due to increased inventory. Tin has stopped falling and rebounded. Aluminum is rebounding slightly, alumina is oscillating within a range, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Platinum is oscillating at a low level, and palladium prices may be suppressed by ETF outflows. Nickel is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions. Stainless steel has frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, with nickel - iron expectations providing support [2]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Fundamentals: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2602, Gold T + D, Comex Gold 2602, and London Gold Spot all increased, with daily increases of 8.45%, 6.74%, 6.19%, and 6.06% respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 and Comex Gold 2602 decreased, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602 and Comex Silver 2602 increased, while the price of Shanghai Silver 2602 decreased by 12.12% during the day. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 increased, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 109. The inventories of both gold and silver in Shanghai and Comex decreased [4]. - News: The US House of Representatives approved a government funding bill to end a partial shutdown. There was an AI panic in the US stock market, and the Fed governor Milan said that more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year [4][6]. - Trend Intensity: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of - 1 [6]. Copper - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 104,500, with a daily increase of 6.01%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index decreased, and the inventory of Shanghai Copper and London Copper increased. The LME copper cash - 3M spread and other spreads changed [7]. - News: The Fed governor Milan said more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year. Zambia's copper production in 2025 increased by 8%. Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7%. Some copper companies' production decreased, and a copper mine in Canada resumed operations. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association is studying including "copper concentrate" in the national reserve [7][8][9]. - Trend Intensity: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [9]. Zinc - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24,960, with a 1.82% increase, while the London Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price decreased by 1.53%. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc decreased, and the inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased while that of London Zinc decreased [10]. - News: Goldman Sachs analysts had views on Fed Chairman Wash. The Fed governor Milan said more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year [11]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [11]. Lead - Fundamentals: The closing prices of the Shanghai Lead main contract and the London Lead 3M electronic - disk decreased. The trading volume of Shanghai Lead decreased, and the inventory of both Shanghai Lead and London Lead increased [14]. - News: The Fed governor Milan said more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year, and the US House of Representatives approved a government funding bill [15]. - Trend Intensity: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. Tin - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 6.70% during the day but increased by 6.64% at night. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin increased, and the inventory of Shanghai Tin and London Tin decreased. The prices of spot tin decreased [18]. - Trend Intensity: Tin has a trend intensity of 1 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,810. The trading volume and inventory of Shanghai Aluminum and LME Aluminum changed. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,809. The prices and inventories of related products in the aluminum industry chain also changed [21]. - News: The Fed governor Milan said more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year, and the US House of Representatives approved a government funding bill [23]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum has a trend intensity of 1, alumina has a trend intensity of 0, and cast aluminum alloy has a trend intensity of 1 [23]. Platinum and Palladium - Fundamentals: The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot increased. The trading volume and inventory of platinum and palladium in various markets changed [24]. - News: Trump signed a bill to end a partial government shutdown. The Fed's statements on interest rate cuts and international events such as the situation between the US and Iran affected the market [27]. - Trend Intensity: Platinum and palladium both have a trend intensity of 0 [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 134,830, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,585. The prices, trading volumes, and inventories of products in the nickel and stainless - steel industrial chains changed [30]. - News: Indonesia suspended issuing new smelting licenses, China implemented export license management for some steel products, and Indonesia planned to adjust the nickel ore production target. Some nickel mines planned to restart operations [30][31][33]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [35].