五矿期货：乙二醇专题：地缘与基本面博弈，减产压力仍存

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Ethylene glycol still has significant inventory accumulation pressure, with high domestic operating rates and expected moderately high import volumes from February to March. It is likely to experience substantial inventory accumulation during the downstream off - season around the Spring Festival [2][4]. - The previous cold wave narrative was unable to support the upward trend of ethylene glycol. The cold wave had no substantial impact on the devices, and the influence of cold waves on China's overall imports has diminished. Currently, the key exogenous variable is the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [12]. - If the geopolitical issues ease, ethylene glycol will need to compress its valuation to reduce the high operating rate under the pressure of weak fundamentals [2][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Currently, the fundamentals of ethylene glycol remain weak - Ethylene glycol faces significant inventory accumulation pressure, with high domestic operating rates, especially for coal - based plants with good profits. Iran and Kuwait have abundant supplies, Taiwan, China is shipping actively, and Saudi Arabia's production cuts will be reflected later. Import volumes from February to March are expected to be moderately high [4]. - Inventory is likely to increase to historical high levels during the Spring Festival downstream off - season. The inventory decline cycle is expected to start after the maintenance season in March and the restart of the polyester peak season, but the de - stocking intensity will be gentle until the ethylene glycol operating rate is substantially reduced [4] 3.2 The previous cold wave narrative was difficult to support, and the main focus is on the influence of Middle East geopolitics - The cold wave in Texas and Louisiana did not cause extremely low temperatures, only around - 5 degrees Celsius, far from the - 19 degrees Celsius in 2021 that led to the shutdown of chemical plants. So, it had no substantial impact on the devices, and the cold wave narrative ended quickly [12]. - Since the Sino - US tariff issue, the amount of ethylene glycol exported from the US to China has decreased significantly, and its exports have mostly been replaced by those from the Middle East and Taiwan, China. So, the influence of cold waves on China's imports has weakened [12]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is a key exogenous variable. As US exports decline, Saudi Arabia's exports to China have reached a relatively high level. Saudi and Kuwaiti exports are affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. If the geopolitical issues ease, ethylene glycol needs to compress its valuation to reduce the high operating rate [12]