铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China plans to include copper concentrate in the national reserve, leading to a general rebound in metal prices. The A - share market rebounded on Tuesday, with growth - style small - cap stocks leading the gains. The market may continue to fluctuate in the short term and remain positive in the long term [2][3]. - Precious metals rebounded due to bargain - hunting. However, it is too early to say that the adjustment is over, and prices are expected to continue to adjust until volatility cools [4][5]. - Copper prices rebounded significantly because of China's plan to increase copper reserves. Short - term copper prices are expected to continue to rebound [6][7]. - Aluminum prices' adjustment slowed after risk sentiment was released. The market is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [8][9]. - Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level due to the co - existence of bullish and bearish factors [10]. - Cast aluminum is expected to follow the cost and oscillate as it is in a seasonal off - season with no prominent fundamental contradictions [11]. - Zinc prices had a weak rebound due to positive news, but it is hard to say that the adjustment is over [12]. - Lead prices are expected to stabilize and weakly correct following the non - ferrous sector [13]. - Tin prices had a weak rebound due to the boost of capacity control signals, but the fundamental support is weakening [14]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate as the steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand during the Spring Festival [15]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate as the supply is strong and demand is weak [16][17]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate as the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival [18]. - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate as the precipitation in Argentina has improved and the domestic soybean purchase plan is progressing [19][20]. - Palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust as the production in Malaysia decreased, exports increased, and India's imports surged in January [21][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump signed a temporary spending agreement, ending the partial shutdown. The Fed's officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The dollar index fell, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose. The Nasdaq fell sharply. Gold and copper prices rebounded, and oil prices rose due to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East [2]. - Domestic: A - shares rebounded on Tuesday, with growth - style small - cap stocks leading the gains. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association is studying to include copper concentrate in the national reserve [3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - On Tuesday, precious metals rebounded significantly. Some investors bought on dips, and domestic consumers "bottom - fished" physical metals. The adjustment of precious metal prices is a correction of market sentiment. It is too early to say that the adjustment is over, and prices are expected to continue to adjust [4][5]. 3.1.3 Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper rebounded from a low level. China plans to increase strategic copper reserves. Geopolitical risks and the weak dollar have pushed up the metal's valuation. Overseas mines'复产 is not smooth, non - US inventories are low, and domestic inventory accumulation has slowed. Copper prices are expected to continue to rebound in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum fell slightly, and LME aluminum rose. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The risk sentiment was released, and the market repaired the previous over - reaction. The fundamentals are weak, and aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [8][9]. 3.1.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures contract rose slightly. The social inventory accumulation slowed, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased. The market is in a game between the expected production cuts during the Spring Festival and the new capacity and cost - reduction pressure after the Spring Festival. Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level [10]. 3.1.6 Cast Aluminum - On Tuesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures contract fell. Cast aluminum follows the cost and oscillates as it is in a seasonal off - season with no prominent fundamental contradictions [11]. 3.1.7 Zinc - On Tuesday, Shanghai zinc stabilized and oscillated. The US government's shutdown concern decreased, and the Fed's dovish statement alleviated market pessimism. The downstream buying decreased, and the domestic market is in the Spring Festival inventory accumulation cycle. Zinc prices had a weak rebound, but it is hard to say that the adjustment is over [12]. 3.1.8 Lead - On Tuesday, Shanghai lead oscillated horizontally. The LME inventory increased, and domestic downstream enterprises are on holiday. The inventory is expected to increase, which suppresses lead prices. However, the loss of secondary lead smelters has expanded, and the price is expected to stabilize and weakly correct [13]. 3.1.9 Tin - On Tuesday, the tin futures contract had a weak rebound. The market's selling pressure was repaired due to the capacity control signal. However, the terminal demand is weakening, and the supply from Myanmar and Indonesia has recovered. Tin prices are expected to have a weak rebound and repair [14]. 3.1.10 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated. The spot market trading volume decreased. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand during the Spring Festival. Steel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and macro - policies [15]. 3.1.11 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated. The port inventory increased, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [16][17]. 3.1.12 Coking Coal and Coke - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The supply is tightening due to environmental protection policies and coal mine holidays, and the demand is weak as steel mills are on holiday. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to oscillate [18]. 3.1.13 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures fell. The precipitation in Argentina has improved, and the domestic soybean purchase plan is progressing. The market is expected to oscillate [19][20]. 3.1.14 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures fell slightly. The production in Malaysia decreased, exports increased, and India's imports surged in January. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust [21][23]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, in both domestic and international markets [24]. 3.3 Industrial Data Perspective - The report shows the price changes, inventory changes, and other data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and other products from February 2 to February 3 [25][28][30].