油脂油料：申万期货品种策略日报-2026/2/4-20260204

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The global demand growth helps the US soybean export prospects this year, and the US Soybean Export Council is committed to expanding the global market access for US soybeans [2] - The protein meal market: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The US EPA will soon release final regulations on biofuels, including the small refinery exemption policy, which boosts demand expectations, but the harvest pressure in Brazil has led to a decline in US soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, the high inventory of soybean meal and the expectation of sufficient supply in the distant months continue to put pressure on prices [2] - The oil market: Night trading of oils closed higher. Malaysia's palm oil exports were strong in January, production decreased month - on - month, and the reduction of tariffs improved future export expectations. The palm oil market is in a de - stocking cycle, which supports palm oil prices. However, due to the sharp decline in crude oil prices, the oil market is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market Domestic Futures - Prices and Changes: The previous closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8086, 9094, and 9215 respectively, with changes of - 6, + 80, and + 79, and percentage changes of - 0.07%, + 0.89%, and - 3.15%. The previous closing prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 2727, 2362, and 8844 respectively, with changes of - 23, - 21, and + 26, and percentage changes of - 0.84%, - 0.88%, and + 0.29% [1] - Spreads: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 are 40, 112, and 68 respectively, compared with the previous values of 56, 134, and 90. The current spreads of Y - P09, OI - Y09, and OI - P09 are - 946, 1057, and 111 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 1000, 971, and - 29. The current spreads of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1 are - 48 and 68 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 45 and 57. The current spread of M - RM09 is 559, compared with the previous value of 579. The current ratios of M/RM09, Y/M09 are 1.24 and 2.87 respectively, and Y - M09 is currently 5349, compared with the previous value of 5406 [1] International Futures - Prices and Changes: The previous closing prices of BMD palm oil (in ringgit per ton), CBOT soybeans (in cents per bushel), CBOT US soybean oil (in cents per pound), and CBOT US soybean meal (in dollars per ton) were 4180, 1067, 54.52, and 292 respectively, with changes of - 40.0, + 6.8, + 1.3, and - 2.2, and percentage changes of - 0.95%, + 0.64%, + 2.40%, and - 0.75% [1] Spot Market Domestic Spot Prices and Changes - Oils: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8470 and 8570 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.24% and - 0.35%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 9160, with a percentage change of 1.10%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9890 and 9860 respectively, with a percentage change of - 0.20% [1] - Meals and Nuts: The current spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 3030 and 3090 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.66% and - 0.96%. The current spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 2520 and 2460 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.79% and - 0.81%. The current spot prices of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 7150 and 7300 respectively, with no change [1] Spot Basis - For oils, the spot basis of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil is 384 and 484 respectively, that of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil is 66, and that of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil is 675 and 645 respectively. For meals, the spot basis of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal is 303 and 363 respectively, and that of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal is 271 and 211 respectively. The spot basis of Linyi and Anyang peanuts is - 880 and - 730 respectively [1] Spot Spreads - The current spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 460, the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil is 1340, and the spread between Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 630, compared with the previous values of - 460, 1270, and 600 respectively [1] Import, Crushing Profit, and Warehouse Receipts - Import and Crushing Profit: The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 377, - 256, 0, - 224, 223, and 465 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 469, - 253, 4, - 217, 133, and 399 respectively [1] - Warehouse Receipts: The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 26,460, 450, 625, 33,428, 0, and 0 respectively. The previous values of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 26,460, 0, 625, 33,428, 0, and 0 respectively [1] Industry Information - The US Soybean Export Council CEO said global demand growth helps the US soybean export prospects this year, and the council is committed to expanding the global market access for US soybeans [2] - According to SPPOMA data, from January 1 - 31, 2026, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 13.78% month - on - month compared with the same period of last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.16% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 13.08% month - on - month [2] - According to CONAB data, as of January 31, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 11.4%, compared with 6.6% last week, 8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 11.8% [2] - According to MPOA data, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43%. High - frequency data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 25 increased by 7.97% - 9.97% month - on - month [2] - The Indonesian President announced a plan to ban the export of used cooking oil and palm waste [2]