股指：申万期货品种策略日报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous improvement of the stock market in 2026 is the result of the resonance of the technology cycle, the release of policy dividends, the recovery of the economy, and the return of overseas funds. In February, the market is expected to continue its phased upward trend, benefiting from the "Spring Market" window period, the release of policy dividends at the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan", clear profit expectations for AI and overseas expansion themes, seasonal recovery in the consumer sector, and the implementation of investment projects. However, potential disturbances from overseas capital market fluctuations during the Spring Festival holiday, especially geopolitical risks, need to be watched out for [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 4582.20, 4577.40, 4540.00, and 4491.80 respectively, with declines of -136.20, -142.20, -167.60, and -170.60 and drops of -2.89%, -3.01%, -3.56%, and -3.66%. The trading volumes were 34422.00, 110802.00, 33589.00, and 12595.00, and the open interests were 37542.00, 174613.00, 75115.00, and 26611.00, with decreases of -2648.00, -11760.00, -4210.00, and -145.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 3032.80, 3033.00, 3025.20, and 2999.80 respectively, with increases of 26.00, 27.40, 34.80, and 34.20 and rises of 0.86%, 0.91%, 1.16%, and 1.15%. The trading volumes were 11671.00, 39958.00, 7948.00, and 4357.00, and the open interests were 15785.00, 62777.00, 25732.00, and 10211.00, with changes of -1198.00, -3469.00, -199.00, and 67.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 7951.00, 7903.20, 7765.20, and 7647.00 respectively, with declines of -434.60, -475.20, -558.00, and -593.00 and drops of -5.18%, -5.67%, -6.70%, and -7.20%. The trading volumes were 43997.00, 151002.00, 69294.00, and 24711.00, and the open interests were 43403.00, 153481.00, 93095.00, and 38790.00, with changes of -3591.00, -10216.00, -7752.00, and 869.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 8213.00, 8183.00, 8031.00, and 7885.80 respectively, with increases of 223.00, 228.20, 251.40, and 251.80 and rises of 2.79%, 2.87%, 3.23%, and 3.30%. The trading volumes were 44819.00, 150161.00, 42375.00, and 20281.00, and the open interests were 58651.00, 189544.00, 105961.00, and 51362.00, with changes of -2382.00, -5304.00, -1872.00, and 826.00 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were -4.80, 0.20, -47.80, and -30.00 respectively, compared with the previous values of 1.00, 0.60, -14.80, and -38.20 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - CSI 300 Index: The previous day's index points were 4660.11, with a trading volume of 265.55 billion lots and a total trading value of 6666.27 billion yuan, showing a 1.18% increase [1] - SSE 50 Index: The previous day's data showed a decline of -2.07%, but specific index points, trading volume, and total trading value were not fully presented [1] - CSI 500 Index: The previous day's index points were 8286.70, with a trading volume of 272.23 billion lots and a total trading value of 5432.64 billion yuan, showing a 3.11% increase [1] - CSI 1000 Index: The previous day's index points were 8209.10, with a trading volume of 299.22 billion lots and a total trading value of 5257.60 billion yuan, showing a 2.93% increase [1] - CSI 300 Industry Index: Different industries had varying changes. For example, energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption decreased by -4.44%, -7.74%, -0.96%, and -1.14% respectively; major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology changed by 1.12%, -2.05%, -0.53%, and -2.85% respectively; telecommunications services and public utilities decreased by -3.36% and -0.81% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - IF Contracts and CSI 300: The previous two days' values of the basis for IF (current month - CSI 300), IF (next month - CSI 300), IF (next quarter - CSI 300), and IF (the quarter after next - CSI 300) were -23.78, -28.58, -65.98, and -114.18 respectively [1] - IH Contracts and SSE 50: The previous two days' values of the basis for IH (current month - SSE 50), IH (next month - SSE 50), IH (next quarter - SSE 50), and IH (the quarter after next - SSE 50) were 0.46, 1.06, -17.14, and -39.54 respectively [1] - IC Contracts and CSI 500: The previous values of the basis for IC (current month - CSI 500), IC (next month - CSI 500), IC (next quarter - CSI 500), and IC (the quarter after next - CSI 500) were -65.43, -103.63, -273.83, and -426.83 respectively [1] - IM Contracts and CSI 1000: Specific basis data was not fully presented [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4067.74, 14127.11, 8524.43, and 3324.89 respectively, showing increases compared to the previous two days [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26834.77, 54720.66, 6917.81, and 24781.38 respectively, with changes of 0.22%, 3.92%, -0.84%, and -0.07% respectively [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - The first central government's No. 1 Document of the "15th Five - Year Plan" was released on February 3, aiming to promote rural revitalization and modernize agriculture [2] - The central bank will conduct an 800 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation on February 4, with an additional 100 billion - yuan roll - over, the first increase in the past four months. The net investment in treasury bond trading in the open market in January was 100 billion yuan [2] - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the development of strategic emerging industries and future industries and the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries in central enterprises [2] - Thirty provinces have set their GDP growth targets for 2026, with many large economic provinces aiming for over 5%. Shanghai aims for about 5% GDP growth and plans to implement major industrial projects in the fields of integrated circuits and artificial intelligence [2] - In January, the sales volume of 6 types of household appliances and 4 types of digital and intelligent products exceeded 15 million units, with sales of nearly 59 billion yuan. The offline sales of home appliance trade - ins and new digital and intelligent product purchases accounted for nearly 80%, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [2] 3.6 Industry Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to strengthen technological supply for future industries, promote breakthroughs in 6G, quantum technology, brain - computer interfaces, and embodied intelligence, and establish a policy system for cultivating future industries [2] - Eight departments jointly issued guidelines for the safe cross - border transfer of automobile data to improve data security protection [2] - The Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission formulated a negative list for algorithms of life - service platforms, requiring relevant platforms to develop implementation plans [2] - Domestic refined oil retail prices increased for the second consecutive time. Starting from 24:00 on February 3, gasoline and diesel retail prices per ton increased by 205 yuan and 195 yuan respectively [2]