申万期货品种策略日报-生猪（LH）-20260204

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract of live hog futures, LH2605, closed at 11,600 yuan/ton, down 0.81% from the previous day. The average ex-farm price of ternary live hogs in China was 12.41 yuan/kg, slightly down 0.05 yuan/kg. The market showed a differentiated pattern with prices falling in the north and rising in the south. The prices in the north were under pressure due to the weight reduction and increased supply of leading enterprises, while the overall market in the south weakened due to the price decline in the north despite the support of reduced supply at the beginning of the month. Currently, it is difficult to sell standard hogs, while the transactions of large hogs are relatively smooth, but the incremental demand from terminal slaughterhouses is limited, providing insufficient support to the market. Overall, it is expected that the hog price will continue to adjust weakly tomorrow. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of small farmers and the actual supply reduction of group enterprises [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of live hog futures contracts in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13,255, 11,160, 11,600, 12,170, 13,055, and 12,960 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, they decreased by 95, 60, 35, 60, 115, and 130 respectively, with decline rates of -0.71%, -0.53%, -0.30%, -0.49%, -0.87%, and -0.99% [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes were 255, 38,906, 42,182, 6,909, 9,631, and 4,253 respectively, and the open interests were 1,531, 92,241, 137,621, 50,135, 36,512, and 20,997 respectively. The changes in open interest were +100, -3,709, +7,133, +1,573, +1,747, and +1,173 respectively [2]. - Spreads: The current spreads of January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 2,095, -440, -570, -885, 95, and -295 respectively, compared with the previous values of 2,130, -415, -595, -940, 80, and -260 [2]. Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The current spot prices of live hogs in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 12.54, 11.86, 12.36, 12.41, 12.48, and 12.59 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, they changed by -0.35, -23.8, 0.06, 0.01, 0.05, and -0.26 respectively [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts the day before was 100, an increase of 100 compared with two days ago [2].